Net zero by 2050 requires more effort according to computer model
Published: Monday, Nov 6th 2023, 16:40
Updated At: Tuesday, Nov 7th 2023, 00:54
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Achieving the net-zero target by 2050 is unrealistic for Switzerland without additional political measures, according to a new study. Researchers at the University of Geneva came to this conclusion using a new computer model.
The model is more accurate than previous models, the University of Geneva (Unige) said in a press release on Monday. According to Unige, the results, which were published in the scientific journal "Pnas Nexus", should help energy policy achieve its goals.
According to the researchers, the model was developed to make predictions about the spread of three energy technologies: Photovoltaics, heat pumps and electric vehicles.
It is a so-called probabilistic model that is based on the data available for each municipality and combines twelve existing models. Using a supercomputer, this model can be used to calculate the discrepancy between the targets and the modeled reality for each municipality.
An example
The researchers used the new model to determine, among other things, whether the city of Thun (BE) will achieve its energy targets if it continues as before. According to Unige, in order to achieve CO2 neutrality, the Thun authorities are relying on photovoltaic production of over 120 megawatts (MW) in 2050 (currently less than 20 MW) and the commissioning of 12,000 electric vehicles (currently around 500).
The result of the modeling: If the city continues as before, it will probably only produce 90 MW with solar systems in 2050 and have less than 8000 electric vehicles in operation.
"If you look at our results, it seems very unlikely that Switzerland will achieve net carbon emissions by 2050 without a change in policy," study leader Evelina Trutnevyte was quoted as saying in the press release.
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