According to Raiffeisen, the economy will still not realize its potential in 2025
Published: Thursday, Dec 5th 2024, 11:50
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The Swiss economy will remain below its potential in the coming year. This is the forecast of the Raiffeisen economists. Nevertheless, 2025 should be slightly better than 2024.
The banking group's experts are forecasting growth of 1.3% in Swiss gross domestic product (GDP, adjusted for sporting events) for the coming year, as they announced on Thursday. Growth would therefore be slightly stronger than in the current year 2024 (forecast: 1.1%).
This is based on "extremely resilient momentum" in the important chemicals and pharmaceuticals sector. The outlook for consumption has also brightened. Robust employment growth in the service sector and the development of wages are responsible for this. Real wages are expected to rise, not least thanks to significantly lower inflation (forecast 2025: +0.5%).
However, according to the Raiffeisen experts, the Swiss economy is still a long way from potential growth, which most experts place somewhere between 1.5% and 2.0% in 2025. And there is still a long way to go.
According to the banking group's economists, global economic growth in 2025 is likely to be as weak as in the past two years. The economy in the eurozone in particular is barely making any headway.
This is particularly affecting industry in Germany. So far, there are no signs of a recovery in the order situation. On the contrary, the outcome of the US elections and the prospect of a tightening of US customs policy are now creating an additional risk.
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