Economiesuisse anticipates subdued economic growth
Published: Wednesday, Dec 6th 2023, 13:01
العودة إلى البث المباشر
In view of the global economic downturn, the Swiss economy will continue to operate with the "handbrake on" next year. This is the assumption of the umbrella organization Economiesuisse in its latest forecast. Meanwhile, the shortage of labor remains a major problem for Swiss companies.
Inflation, wars and rising interest rates in particular are currently weighing on the global economy and therefore also on the Swiss economy. Economists at Economiesuisse therefore expect real gross domestic product (GDP) in Switzerland to grow by only 1.1% in 2024, following a meagre 1.0% in the current year.
With their assumptions, the economists at Economiesuisse are in line with the expectations of other experts. Most forecasters currently expect growth of around 1 percent in the coming year.
Global economy weakens
According to Economiesuisse chief economist Rudolf Minsch, the reason for the subdued mood is the weakening global economy. Global trade is shrinking and some countries have even slipped into recession, he told media representatives on Wednesday. In particular, the weakness in important sales markets such as Germany and China is slowing down the local economy. The US economy, on the other hand, is developing better than expected.
However, the Swiss export industry is holding up surprisingly well in a difficult environment, continued Minsch. Once again, the pharmaceutical industry, which is important for Switzerland and does not react too strongly to cyclical fluctuations, is a saving anchor. According to the association's economists, watch and food manufacturers also have a positive outlook for the future.
In contrast, a clear decline in value creation is expected in the mechanical, electrical and metal industry and related tech sectors due to the current order backlog, it said. The chemical industry is also facing a difficult year in 2024. The continuing high energy prices remain a problem.
Strong service sector
Meanwhile, the situation in the services sector is good. Economiesuisse only expects a decline in a few sectors such as printing and publishing or telecommunications. By contrast, more or less strong growth is expected in banking, insurance, consulting, gastronomy, hotels and tourism, transportation, healthcare, IT and retail in 2024.
Inflation, which is "moderate" compared to other countries, is supporting consumption in Switzerland, but inflation remains an uncertainty factor, according to the report. It has fallen, mainly thanks to falling fossil fuel prices. However, higher nominal wages and electricity prices in the basic supply or rising rents are likely to boost inflation again in the coming year.
Economiesuisse expects inflation rates of 2.2% in 2023 and 2024. Minsch assumes that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will make a further interest rate hike of 0.25 percentage points at most in the near future. At next week's meeting, however, the key interest rate of currently 1.75% is unlikely to be touched.
Labor market situation remains tense
The labor market is proving extremely robust in the current uncertain times: Economiesuisse expects only a slight increase in the unemployment rate from 2.0% in the current year to 2.3% in the coming year. "The acute shortage of labor and skilled workers will therefore continue to occupy Swiss companies," says Minsch. Restaurants and retailers in particular are struggling to fill vacancies.
Due to the large number of upcoming retirements and too few new recruits, the situation will remain tense. In order to stem the labor shortage, better use must be made of the domestic potential that lies dormant among older people and women. "And to a certain extent, we will probably also need workers from abroad," said Minsch.
©كيستون/إسدا
Arabic 
English 
German 
French 
Spanish