Experts surveyed by KOF slightly more pessimistic about the labor market
Published: Monday, Jun 24th 2024, 10:00
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Economic experts' assessment of Switzerland's economic development is practically the same as three months ago. They have slightly raised their growth forecasts for Switzerland. However, they are slightly less optimistic about developments on the labor market.
The economists surveyed by KOF have revised their forecasts for Swiss economic output upwards by one percentage point. On average, they now expect gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 1.2% in 2024. In March, the growth forecast was still at 1.1%. The forecast is adjusted for sporting events. At +1.5%, the unadjusted forecast is also one percentage point higher than in the previous quarter.
Labor market weaker
Meanwhile, the outlook for the labor market has deteriorated somewhat. Instead of an unemployment rate of 2.2 percent, the experts now expect a rate of 2.3 percent for the current year, as the KOF writes in its press release on Monday. They are also less optimistic for next year, raising their estimate for the unemployment rate to 2.4 percent from 2.3 percent.
The experts' average assessment of capital investment is also worse than three months ago. After expecting stagnation in March, economists are now forecasting a year-on-year decline of 0.1% for 2024. For the coming year, the forecast is for growth of 2.4% (March: +2.6%).
The fact that the estimates here are now lower is primarily due to the less rosy outlook for construction investment: Here, growth rates of 0.3 percent are expected for this year after 0.7 percent in March and 1.4 percent for next year after 1.6 percent.
Meanwhile, investment in equipment is viewed slightly more positively with a minus of 0.2% after 0.3% for 2024. However, expectations for next year are also slightly lower than in March (+3.0%) at plus 2.9%.
Real export growth is estimated at 2.8% (March: +2.9%) for this year and an unchanged 3.1% for next year.
Inflation outlook unchanged
The economists surveyed expect the inflation rate for the current year to remain unchanged at 1.4%. With an estimated inflation rate of 1.3% for 2025, they anticipate a slightly higher rate than three months ago (March: 1.2%).
14 economists took part in the survey for the KOF Consensus. The survey took place between May 30 and June 19 - i.e. before the SNB's interest rate decision last week.
The KOF Consensus expert survey should not be confused with the KOF Economic Forecast. This was already published on June 17.
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