Federal economists a touch more optimistic for 2024
Published: Monday, Jun 17th 2024, 09:20
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The federal government's economists have made a slight upward adjustment to their forecast for economic growth in the current year. However, there are no signs of a real normalization until 2025.
For 2024, the federal government's group of experts is now forecasting growth in real gross domestic product (GDP, adjusted for sporting events) of 1.2%, compared to 1.1% in the last estimate from March, as announced by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) on Monday. The forecast for 2025 remains unchanged at 1.7%.
According to the communiqué, growth in the current year will therefore continue to be "well below average". However, the gradual recovery of the global economy will then provide a tailwind. The expert group assumes that the global economy, and Europe in particular, will recover from the weak phase of the last two years in 2025. As a result, Swiss exports and investments should also regain momentum.
Support also comes from the local inflation trend, which is expected to be slightly lower than in the last forecast. Federal economists are now forecasting inflation of 1.4% in 2024 and 1.1% in 2025.
However, the below-average growth of recent times is leaving a slight mark on the labor market. The forecast for the unemployment rate in 2024 is now 2.4% instead of 2.3% and for 2025 2.6% instead of 2.5%.
Meanwhile, the economic risks are described as balanced. On the negative side, there are geopolitical risks in particular. On the other hand, it is possible that growth could normalize more quickly than is currently foreseeable. According to the experts, this could be the case if international inflation declines faster than expected.
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