Forecasts: SPD wins against the AfD in Brandenburg
Published: Sunday, Sep 22nd 2024, 18:50
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In the state elections in the eastern German state of Brandenburg, the ruling Social Democrats (SPD) narrowly held their ground against the right-wing populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) and once again became the strongest party.
According to the 6 p.m. forecasts by ARD and ZDF, the Christian Democrats (CDU) and the new left-wing populist alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) follow behind. The Greens, Left Party, Liberals (FDP) and BVB/Free Voters all remain in single figures.
SPD Prime Minister Dietmar Woidke could thus continue to govern after eleven years in office. He has led a coalition with the CDU and the Greens in Brandenburg since 2019.
According to forecasts, the SPD achieved 31 to 32% (2019: 23.5%). The AfD, which the State Office for the Protection of the Constitution (domestic intelligence service) classifies as a suspected right-wing extremist, rises to 29 to 30 percent (23.5).
This is followed by the CDU with 11.5 to 12% (15.6) and the BSW, which reached 12% from a standing start. The Greens lost a massive amount of ground and landed at 4.5 to 5 percent (10.8). The Left Party also slips dramatically to 3 to 4 percent (10.7). BVB/Freie Wähler come in at 2.5 to 2.7 percent (5.0). The FDP is not shown individually.
Parties that fail at the five percent hurdle still have a chance via the basic mandate clause: if they win at least one direct mandate, they enter the state parliament - with the number of seats according to their second vote result.
According to the forecasts, the SPD has 30 to 33 seats in the state parliament (2019: 25 seats), the AfD 29 to 30 (23). The CDU receives 12 seats (15). The BSW has 12 to 13 seats.
According to the ARD forecast, the Greens get 5 seats (10), while the ZDF figures show them failing to reach the five percent threshold. BVB/Freie Wähler also remain below the critical threshold (5). For the first time since 1990, the Left Party - then still known as the PDS - did not make it into the state parliament (10). However, all three parties can still hope for a direct mandate.
According to forecasts, voter turnout is between 73 and 74 percent, which is significantly higher than the 2019 figure of 61.3 percent.
Brandenburg has been governed by the SPD since 1990
After recent poor results in the European elections and the state elections in Thuringia and Saxony, Chancellor Olaf Scholz's SPD can now breathe a sigh of relief - even at federal level. The Chancellor can hope for a slight tailwind for the federal elections in a year's time. For the other two parties in the governing coalition - the Greens and the FDP - the Brandenburg figures are bitter.
Since German reunification in 1990, the Social Democrats have consistently held the office of Minister President in Brandenburg. During the election campaign, 62-year-old Woidke deliberately avoided making any major joint appearances with Chancellor Scholz - probably also due to the poor poll ratings of the Berlin "traffic light" party.
Around 2.1 million people were called to vote - there are fewer eligible voters in the federal state than in Berlin.
Difficult government formation
Before the election, Woidke had announced that he only wanted to remain in government if the SPD became the strongest party - he has now achieved this. However, forming a government is likely to be complicated.
It is unclear whether the previous government partner, the Greens, will return to the state parliament - in which case a continuation of the red-black-green coalition would be possible. Woidke did not comment on his preferred partners before the election.
The BSW would also be a possible partner, as would the BVB/Freie Wähler - should the latter win a direct mandate. The BSW had signaled during the election campaign that it did not want to join the government at any price.
Despite its good results, the AfD has no prospect of participating in government: No other party wants to work with it. The rise of the AfD has also recently triggered concerns abroad about a shift to the right in Germany, for example among partners in NATO and the EU. The party had already performed strongly in the state elections in Thuringia and Saxony at the beginning of the month.
State parliament in Potsdam has a maximum of 110 seats
A special feature in Brandenburg, which does not exist in any other federal state, is the cap on the number of seats in the state parliament - a maximum of 110.
If the AfD wins more direct mandates in this election than it is entitled to according to the share of second votes, experts believe that the other parties may not get enough compensatory mandates due to the limit on seats in the state parliament.
Should the AfD even gain more than a third of the seats, it would have a so-called blocking minority: it would have to agree to decisions and elections that require a two-thirds majority. Constitutional judges, for example, are elected by parliament with a two-thirds majority.
Election campaign topics migration and foreign policy
The election campaign was dominated by a fierce debate about limiting irregular migration, fueled by the Islamist knife attack in Solingen in western Germany that claimed three lives. Brandenburg's border with Poland is considered a migration hotspot throughout Germany, with many asylum seekers entering the country despite stationary police checks.
Despite comparatively strong economic growth, low unemployment and the establishment of the US car manufacturer Tesla, for example, there has recently been a great deal of dissatisfaction among voters in Brandenburg, according to surveys.
There was particular displeasure about the Ukraine policy of the German government, which is supported by the "traffic light" parties SPD, Greens and FDP, which played into the BSW's hands.
Among other things, the Wagenknecht party rejects economic sanctions against Russia and arms deliveries to Ukraine and also opposes the German government's plans to station large-scale US weapons in Germany.
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