German Liberals and Christian Socials start the political year
Published: Friday, Jan 5th 2024, 05:20
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The Liberals, who co-govern in Germany, will meet in Stuttgart on Saturday for their traditional Epiphany meeting. At the same time, the annual closed meeting of the Christian Social members of the Bundestag will begin in Seeon Monastery in Bavaria.
The two events are traditionally regarded as the start of the political year in Germany, which in 2024 will see three important state elections in eastern Germany in September in addition to the European elections in June. For the Liberals, FDP leader and Federal Finance Minister Christian Lindner will once again have to act as an encourager in the opera house in the state capital of Baden-Württemberg.
Since December 2021, the FDP has been governing in a "traffic light" coalition (based on the party colors red, yellow and green) with the Social Democrats and Greens under Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD). In nationwide polls, they are currently polling around five percent, well below their 2021 federal election result (11.5 percent).
In most state elections over the past two years, the FDP has failed to reach the five percent threshold to enter parliament, a fate that also threatens it in the elections in September. There is no threshold in the European elections, but a result below five percent would be embarrassing in any case.
Many former FDP supporters resent the fact that the party has to help left-wing positions achieve a majority in an alliance with two center-left parties, for example when it comes to increasing the minimum wage, introducing a citizens' benefit for the long-term unemployed or phasing out nuclear power. As a result, there has recently been growing pressure from the grassroots on Lindner to leave the "traffic light".
In a recent poll of members, a narrow majority of 52.24% voted in favor of remaining in the coalition. The vote was not legally binding, but a different result would have weakened Lindner as second deputy chancellor in any case. However, there is currently no other power option for the Free Democrats, and a new election following a coalition break would threaten their political downfall.
Unlike the FDP, the CSU (Christian Social Union) can look at the polls relatively calmly. The CSU is the sister party of the CDU (Christian Democratic Union of Germany) and is only running in Bavaria, while the CDU is only running in the other 15 German states.
The CSU won the state elections in Bavaria last October by a large margin, even though the days of absolute majorities seem to be over. Prime Minister and CSU leader Markus Söder has governed Germany's largest federal state since 2018 in a coalition with the Free Voters (FW), who are ideologically close to the Christian Socialists.
The CDU and CSU form a joint parliamentary group in the Bundestag in Berlin, but the CSU MPs are organized in a regional group, which is now meeting again in Seeon Monastery. After Chancellor Angela Merkel's (CDU) 16 years in government, the CDU/CSU now has to take the opposition benches in parliament. In opinion polls, however, it is by far the strongest force in Germany with around 33%, and is almost as strong on its own as the three "traffic light" parties combined.
The CSU will use the closed conference to give the "traffic light" a good thrashing. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, a CDU politician, is also on the guest list. It is eagerly awaited what she will say about the CSU's demand for a radical downsizing of the EU Commission.
In Bavaria, the CSU has reached 41% in the latest poll, and in the European elections on June 9, it will try to convert this mood into votes. In the state election campaigns in Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg, it could support the CDU when it comes to preventing an election victory for the AfD, which is far-right in some areas.
In addition, the "K question" is also up for decision in the Christian Democrats this year, namely the question of who will be the CDU and CSU's joint candidate for chancellor in the 2025 Bundestag elections.
CDU leader Friedrich Merz would be the leader of the larger party, but he will be 70 years old at the end of next year and is not as popular with the general public as he is with the party base. Markus Söder (57) could also be waiting for his chance to become the first CSU man to become head of government in Germany next year.
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