KOF Consensus Forecast with lower growth forecasts
Published: Monday, Dec 16th 2024, 10:50
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Economic experts are somewhat less optimistic about Switzerland's economic development than they were three months ago. The growth forecasts for both the current and the coming year have been revised downwards. Inflation forecasts have also been lowered.
The economists surveyed as part of the KOF Consensus Forecast expect real gross domestic product (GDP, adjusted for sport) to grow by 1.0 percent on average in 2024 and 1.5 percent in 2025. The forecast for unadjusted growth is +1.4 percent and +1.3 percent respectively in the coming year, as KOF announced on Monday.
All values are therefore estimated to be slightly lower than in the September survey. The average assessment of investment in equipment in particular is somewhat more pessimistic, while the forecasts for construction investment and exports have been adjusted slightly upwards. The forecasts for exports are also significantly lower than before.
Meanwhile, the estimates for long-term economic development have not changed. Forecasters continue to expect a sports-adjusted growth rate of 1.7% in five years.
Falling inflation expectations
The expected inflation rates for the current and next year have been revised downwards, only slightly for the current year, but significantly for the coming year. The experts now expect inflation rates of +1.1% and +0.6% in 2024 and 2025; the mean values of the latest forecasts are therefore 0.1 and 0.4 percentage points lower than those from September.
However, the 2025 forecast is still above the latest estimates of the SNB (+0.3%) and various banks. The State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (Seco) recently estimated an inflation rate of +0.7% for the coming year, although this forecast is still from mid-September.
Meanwhile, the long-term inflation expectations of the KOF Consensus are seen at +1.0%, 0.2 percentage points lower than three months ago.
The outlook for the future situation on the Swiss labor market has deteriorated slightly. Although the unemployment rate for the current year remains unchanged at 2.4%, the forecast for 2025 and five years ahead has been adjusted slightly upwards to 2.7%.
15 economists took part in the KOF Consensus Forecast. The survey was conducted from November 29 to December 11, 2024.
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