Life expectancy has greatest impact on AHV finances
Published: Thursday, Nov 2nd 2023, 11:10
Updated At: Friday, Nov 3rd 2023, 00:54
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The AHV funding gap depends heavily on demographic trends. According to UBS, migration has the lowest impact, while life expectancy has the highest.
This is the conclusion of the study "AHV 2030" published on Thursday by the UBS Pension Forum. Various "demographic scenarios" and their impact on the financial stability of the AHV were examined.
The analysis runs low and high scenarios for the factors birth rate, life expectancy and migration.
AHV demographically unsalvageable
"In general, we find that the gap in the AHV cannot be closed completely by any demographic scenario, no matter how positive," Veronica Weisser, economist and pension expert at UBS, said at a media conference.
This means that even with a higher birth rate, lower life expectancy and high migration, the AHV finances cannot be completely saved.
The question was therefore which of these factors would have the strongest influence on the development of the financing gap in old-age provision. In its baseline scenario, UBS assumes an OASI debt ratio of 88.2 percent of GDP.
Aging decisive
Of the three demographic factors - fertility, life expectancy and migration - the aging of society has the greatest influence, according to UBS.
If average life expectancy increases more than expected, the funding gap climbs to 127.5 percent. If life expectancy is lower, however, it falls to 49.5 percent.
The second most important factor is the birth rate. If this turns out to be lower than expected, the ratio will rise to 98 percent. However, if more children were born than assumed, this would reduce the financing gap to 74.1 percent of GDP by 2030.
Migration hardly any influence
Migration, meanwhile, has by far the smallest impact. Regardless of whether fewer or more people move to Switzerland than forecast: The rate would only fluctuate between 95.2 and 81.1 percent.
UBS bases its calculations and assumptions for the various scenarios on the forecasts of the Swiss Federal Statistical Office (SFSO).
Higher life expectancy and thus more pensioners and an aging society are thus the greatest challenges for the AHV, UBS economist Weisser summarized the findings. And the AHV - regardless of the scenario - cannot be designed in a way that is "generationally fair" without further reforms.
At the same time, Weisser noted, "According to the results of our study, however, the aging of society does not always receive the prominence it should in the debate about retirement planning."
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