Political scientists see AHV figures chaos as “sticking point” in BVG campaign
Published: Sunday, Sep 22nd 2024, 16:10
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For the research institute gfs.bern, there are various reasons why the pension fund reform fell at the ballot box. However, the "sticking point" during the referendum campaign was the discovery of the AHV calculation error.
The dynamics were "decisively changed" as a result, wrote gfs.bern in an analysis published online. "The confidence of the Federal Council, the economy and the majority of parliament, which is central to government proposals, was undermined when the false figures of the AHV forecasts became known."
Since the beginning of the referendum campaigns, opponents of the bill, particularly on the left, have challenged the official figures, as the research institute writes. This has created the impression of a jumble of figures for all areas of pension provision. Following the AHV miscalculation, "a climate of uncertainty has arisen, not least fueled by the media".
On Sunday, experts also cited the complexity and lack of transparency of the BVG proposal as further reasons for the clear "no" vote. "The effects in individual cases were difficult to understand," said gfs.bern. In this case of doubt, many voters would have voted no at the ballot box.
According to gfs.bern, the approximately 32% of votes in favor of the revision of the occupational pension scheme corresponds to the third-lowest result in a referendum since 2010 - the last attempt to adjust the minimum conversion rate. Back then, the proposal was defeated with 27% of votes in favor. Only the Managed Care proposal received an even lower approval rating.
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