The SPD is getting its act together – Can the traffic lights do the same?
Published: Sunday, Dec 10th 2023, 18:10
Updated At: Sunday, Dec 10th 2023, 18:10
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The SPD party conference could not have gone much better for Chancellor Olaf Scholz and the party leadership. Despite disastrous poll results, the 600 delegates strengthened their leadership trio of chairpersons Saskia Esken and Lars Klingbeil and General Secretary Kevin Kühnert with solid election results. The Chancellor was celebrated for a combative speech that hardly anyone thought he was capable of. And the Jusos rebels remained tame and made a belly landing with motions against EU asylum policy.
The largest governing party, the SPD, which now ranks as the third strongest force in the polls with 14 to 17%, far behind the CDU/CSU and AfD, has closed ranks and rallied behind its chancellor. However, he now has an even more difficult mission to accomplish: Closing the 17 billion hole in the budget for 2024 and financing major projects to modernize the economy. The fate of the coalition government depends on the outcome of his negotiations with Finance Minister Christian Lindner (FDP) and Vice-Chancellor Robert Habeck (Greens).
Two lessons: Chancellor can talk - SPD can pull itself together
There are two things that surprised many at this party conference: the Chancellor's combative appearance and the discipline of the delegates. "He's just not a good speaker." That is one of the most frequent sentences about Olaf Scholz. He often clings to his text, rattling off what he has already said many times, without emotion. His government statement on the budget crisis in the Bundestag is considered one of the worst speeches of his time in office.
At the party conference, Scholz shows that there is another way. 51 minutes without a manuscript. He caresses the party soul by ruling out any dismantling of the welfare state and calls for unity: "We must stick together and have a clear course."
Almost five minutes of standing applause are the thanks of the delegates. "She touched our hearts, she really touched our hearts," enthused party leader Esken afterwards about the speech. The SPD had already shown earlier in the re-election of the party leadership that it does not want to react to lost state elections, poor poll ratings and the budget crisis with riots, but wants to pull itself together. Esken and Kühnert were even able to significantly improve their results.
The new Juso leader Philipp Türmer is one of the few who is taking Scholz on - but moderately. "Dear Olaf, if you want to get off the defensive, you have to play offense," he demands. "You are the head of the government, not Robert and Christian's couples therapist," he says, referring to Habeck and Lindner. On the contentious issue of migration, however, the Jusos fail with motions against the EU asylum reform, for the abolition of the European border protection agency Frontex and for a ban on deportations to Iraq.
The FDP is involved behind the scenes
But there is also a third dimension to the party conference, which takes place behind the scenes, in the numerous discussions on the sidelines. One of the main topics: What is the FDP doing? Is there a danger that their party leader will lose his nerve and resign?
Lindner already proved that he can be very rigorous in this respect in 2017 during negotiations on a Jamaica coalition with the CDU/CSU and the Greens. "It is better not to govern than to govern wrongly." This sentence by the long-standing FDP leader has gone down in the history of German parliamentarianism and is very well remembered by all coalition partners.
Discussion about traffic light exit shows mistrust in the government
The fact that the SPD is quite openly speculating about the FDP leaving the coalition shows how great the mistrust is after two years of dispute and tough agreement processes. However, the main argument against an end to the traffic light coalition is the rather disastrous situation of all three partners.
According to current polls, the SPD, Greens and FDP together would only receive between 33% and 38%. In 2021, they were elected with a combined 52% of the vote. Who can want new elections now? Especially as the FDP would have to worry about re-entering the Bundestag. FDP Transport Minister Volker Wissing did not fuel the speculation. "The FDP wants to shape this country," he replied on ARD's "Bericht aus Berlin". And when asked whether he would also be in government, he said: "Absolutely."
Top or bottom: everything depends on the debt brake
In the budget negotiations, there is now a central question on which everything is coming to a head: will the SPD suspend the debt brake again in order to take out additional loans or not? The SPD wants this at all costs and passed a resolution to this effect at the party conference, but it is not so tough that it takes away the Chancellor's room for negotiation.
The FDP does not want the suspension. However, Lindner has reacted to the SPD party conference with a comment that is seen as a hopeful sign by the Social Democrats. "Despite everything that we still have to solve and can solve, I can only agree with Olaf Scholz on one thing in particular: Supporting Ukraine is also an investment in our security," the FDP leader wrote on X (formerly Twitter) on Saturday. "We stand by this shared responsibility in difficult times."
There are two messages hidden in this: The war in Ukraine would be the main justification if the coalition were to declare an emergency to suspend the debt brake. The fact that Lindner mentions this point could be a signal. He also says that a solution is possible and that the coalition must take joint responsibility. No one else from the FDP was sent forward at the weekend to counter the SPD decisions. That could have been imagined differently.
Without an agreement before Christmas, the traffic lights are on the brink
The coalition now has two weeks left to reach at least a basic political agreement on the budget. If this does not work by Christmas, the coalition is on the brink of collapse. However, nobody wants to paint this scenario on the wall, at least publicly. "We are not facing an insurmountable task. We just need everyone to come to an agreement," says Scholz.
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