BAK Economics sees little growth for tourism after record summer
Published: Tuesday, Oct 31st 2023, 14:20
Aktualisiert am: Mittwoch, 1. November 2023, 00:55
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For the Swiss tourism sector, there will probably only be a small growth in winter after the record summer. This is the conclusion of the BAK Economics research institute.
According to their study published to the media on Tuesday, the experts expect only a slight increase in overnight stays of 0.4 percent to 17.5 million in the winter season 2023/24. Last summer, the industry recorded a record season with 23.5 million overnight stays.
Foreign guests in particular are likely to absorb the expected decline in Swiss guests, the report continues. Although BAK Economics expects the future level to remain around 10 percent above the pre-crisis years, 2.2 percent or 208,000 fewer domestic guests are to be expected in the coming winter.
Disparate remote markets
Meanwhile, demand from Europe is likely to remain positive. Experts expect an increase in overnight stays of 2.2 percent (+115,000 guests). The long-distance markets, on the other hand, are presenting a mixed picture.
China, for example, remains well below pre-crisis levels despite high growth rates, and India's otherwise dynamic growth is being dampened by visa problems. Nevertheless, BAK Economics expects strong overall growth of 5.4 percent (+159,000 guests) in the long-haul markets.
For the summer of 2024, experts are forecasting a new record of plus 0.7 percent to 23.7 million overnight stays. The long-distance markets should more than compensate for the expected decline in European and domestic guests.
Part of business tourism finally lost
This means that the situation in the tourism industry will soon be back to the way it was before Covid. Some profound permanent changes have occurred with the pandemic, however, the BAK economists noted: Business travel, for example, will "never be as important again" as it was before Corona. This submarket is expected to lose about 5 to 10 percent of overnight stays compared to previous years.
Of course, the cities suffered most from this, where business tourism used to account for half of overnight stays. The cities now focused on their strengths as leisure destinations to fill this gap. This strategy is likely to be successful in the judgment of the BAK economists.
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