Employment prospects still positive despite slowdown
Published: Monday, Nov 6th 2023, 14:07
Updated At: Tuesday, Nov 7th 2023, 00:54
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According to the KOF Swiss Economic Institute, the employment outlook in Switzerland remains good in the coming months. Only in the manufacturing industry are there signs of a decline in employment.
The employment indicator calculated by the KOF Swiss Economic Institute fell for the third time in a row in the fourth quarter, but remains clearly in positive territory, as the KOF reported on Monday. For the fourth quarter of 2023, it still stands at 7.7 points, following the slightly downwardly revised 9.2 points of the previous quarter.
This is still well above the long-term average of "close to zero" and also higher than before the coronavirus pandemic, the KOF economists emphasize. However, it has more than halved since its peak in the second quarter of 2022.
The KOF Employment Indicator is calculated from the KOF's quarterly economic surveys. According to the press release, the evaluations for the fourth quarter are based on the responses of around 4,500 companies that were asked about their employment plans and expectations in October.
Major differences between sectors
On balance, a clear majority of the companies surveyed still consider the current number of employees to be too low. Accordingly, there are significantly more companies that plan to increase the number of employees in the next three months than those that plan to reduce employment. The indicator for the current and coming quarter thus points to a continued positive trend in employment in Switzerland.
Overall, however, the situation in the individual sectors varies greatly. In wholesale, for example, the employment indicator has fallen significantly for the third time in a row and is now practically at the long-term average. The retail trade, project planning and other service providers also recorded a noticeable decline in the employment indicator.
In the manufacturing sector, a majority of participating companies consider the current number of employees to be too high. A decline in employment is expected here in the coming months. Nevertheless, expectations in this sector have not fallen any further since the last quarter, but have eased slightly, according to the KOF.
In contrast, the employment indicator for other services, which include sectors with significant employment such as transportation and healthcare, remains at a high level. In the other sectors, the indicator remained stable or increased. The majority of companies in the construction industry, the hospitality industry and financial service providers are expecting an increase in jobs.
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