After Brandenburg: Will the “traffic lights” hold in Berlin?
Published: Monday, Sep 23rd 2024, 15:50
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This is unusual in Germany: after Sunday's election in Brandenburg, there will be no state elections next year - apart from the city state of Hamburg in March.
On September 28, 2025, the Bundestag will be elected and the composition of the next government of Europe's largest economy will be decided. However, doubts are once again growing as to whether the government of Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) will last until then.
Scholz's Social Democrats have achieved what is now a rare election victory in the federal state of Brandenburg. However, they owe this less to the chancellor than to the popularity of state leader Dietmar Woidke and the fear of many Brandenburgers that the far-right AfD could make inroads.
And for the "traffic light" coalition in power in Berlin, election day was a disaster overall: Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck's Greens were kicked out of the state parliament with 4.1%. The Liberals (FDP) led by Finance Minister Christian Lindner, who were already not in the state parliament, ended up in the "Other" field with 0.8 percent.
SPD only successful without Scholz?
"The SPD can still win, but only if it fights the traffic light and the chancellor leaves the continent," mocked the Berliner Zeitung on Monday with regard to the head of government's trip to the United Nations. "It's great that we won," Scholz had already announced from New York on Sunday. However, many now see his coalition facing a new test of strength.
If new elections were held in Germany now, polls suggest that the "traffic light" coalition would achieve a maximum of 30%, less than the opposition Christian Democrats alone. With 4%, the FDP would no longer be represented in the Bundestag in Berlin and, following its collapse in Brandenburg, is now once again questioning the coalition at federal level.
"People are done with the traffic light," said FDP deputy leader Wolfgang Kubicki to Welt TV. There are completely different views on how to get the economy back on track. Either a sensible common denominator could be found - or it would no longer make sense for the Free Democrats to continue participating in this coalition.
FDP leader sets conditions
Even before the Brandenburg elections, FDP leader Christian Lindner had already spoken of an "autumn of decisions". He meant that the coalition would have to come to an agreement on controversial issues such as a planned pension reform or budget cuts.
On Monday, he specified that three issues urgently needed to be resolved this autumn: "Migration, the economic success of this country and a stability-oriented budgetary policy with a bold focus".
The issue of migration is seen as the main reason for the AfD's success, which only came second in Potsdam but gained 5.7 percentage points to 29.2% compared to the 2019 election. In two other state elections in eastern Germany, the party was the strongest force in Thuringia on September 1 and came second in Saxony, just behind the Christian Democrats.
In a survey by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, which was published by ZDF on Sunday, 63% of respondents said that Brandenburg would not be able to cope with the large number of refugees. In 2019, only 35 percent said the same.
There was also nothing for the Christian Democrats to celebrate in Brandenburg on Sunday. The CDU, previously in a three-party alliance with the Greens and Woidke's SPD, fell by 3.5 points to 12.1 percent, its worst result to date in a state election in eastern Germany. "This is painful for the CDU," said German CDU leader Friedrich Merz, who was officially chosen as the candidate for chancellor of the CDU and its Bavarian sister party CSU on Monday.
During the election campaign, Woidke had set out to polarize the SPD and AfD - "them or us". The CDU was crushed in the process.
SPD still stands by Scholz
Woidke had expressly renounced Scholz's support during the election campaign. While there is already speculation in the press that the German Social Democrats could drop their leader before the next election, similar to the US Democrats, Woidke has now explicitly backed him. "The Federal Chancellor is set to be the candidate for Chancellor," said the Minister President of Brandenburg on ARD television. SPD leader Lars Klingbeil expressed similar sentiments on Monday. "There is no wobbling at all," he said.
If the "traffic light" fails in the fall due to the budget or pension issue, Scholz would have to face a vote of confidence in the Bundestag. If he loses, Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier could dissolve the Bundestag and call early elections.
However, according to the polls, there is nothing to gain for any of the three coalition partners, which should strengthen their will to persevere. Merz said on Monday that he was preparing for a "very tough election campaign" for the 2025 Bundestag elections.
©Keystone/SDA
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