Former Secretary General sees OSCE in a situation that threatens its existence
Published: Sunday, Sep 15th 2024, 07:40
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Former OSCE Secretary General Thomas Greminger has warned against taking the current leadership crisis in the security organization lightly. "The OSCE's existence is in danger if we don't succeed in solving the leadership problems and the budget problem," said the Swiss diplomat in an interview with the Austrian news agency APA.
Without the four top jobs, things would only be "fine for a few months", but in the medium term the organization would need a Secretary General and heads for the three institutions, said Greminger. Today, he heads the Center for Security Policy in Geneva, which is mainly financed by the federal government.
The Lucerne-based diplomat headed the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) from 2017 to 2020. Both his own appointment and that of his successor Helga Schmid were preceded by a months-long leadership vacuum. Since the beginning of September, the OSCE General Secretariat in Vienna's city center has once again been vacant.
"I'm not sure it won't take longer this time," said Greminger when asked whether the leadership dispute would be resolved by the end of the year. Although the country holding the chairmanship, Malta, had "worked very hard", a solution at the level of the OSCE ambassadors in Vienna was not to be expected. "The ideal solution would have been to convene an informal ministerial meeting," said Greminger. However, Malta had probably shied away because of the expected complications, as the participation of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov could have triggered a boycott by several European states.
Meetings only with great effort
The foreign ministers of the OSCE states currently only meet at the end of the year to hand over the baton between two chairmanship countries. Last year, this also only worked out with great effort after Malta stepped in for the OSCE chairmanship candidate country Estonia, which was blocked by Russia. There were also repeated informal ministerial meetings, such as in the summer of 2017 under the Austrian Chairmanship in Mauerbach near Vienna.
"We should succeed in making informal ministerial meetings a custom because they are very useful," said Greminger. Unlike other international organizations, the OSCE currently "hardly" makes any demands on foreign ministers, he argued.
Demand for a budget
A reform of the OSCE budget is also urgently needed because the current situation with voluntary contributions from individual states to plug the funding gaps is "not a sustainable solution". Specifically, Greminger proposed that the OSCE Ministerial Council, which meets at the end of the year, be obliged to adopt a budget for the coming year. The OSCE has not had a regular budget since 2021. Although the previous budget will be continued, this is tantamount to a massive cut due to high inflation.
Despite the major problems, Greminger does not want to write off the world's largest regional security organization. "The OSCE is a dead horse when it comes to dialog between Russia and the West and conflict resolution in Ukraine. There is currently nothing to be gained," he conceded. However, the organization is doing important work in many areas and regions, which is greatly appreciated by the states concerned. The OSCE and its institutions should also be "kept alive because they could be useful tomorrow or the day after tomorrow".
Learning from mistakes
For example, the OSCE could also play a role in monitoring a possible ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, said Greminger, who, as ambassador during the Swiss OSCE Chairmanship in 2014, made a significant contribution to the creation of the Special Monitoring Mission (SMM) in Ukraine at the time.
"There are a number of things that can be done differently or better," he said when asked about the lessons learned from the OSCE mission that monitored the so-called "line of contact" in eastern Ukraine between 2014 and 2022. For example, the Russian-Ukrainian officer group, which was supposed to punish violations of the ceasefire, disintegrated after just two years.
The participation of the conflict parties in the mission - Ukrainians as auxiliary forces and Russians as military observers - also caused suspicion on both sides. After all, it took several years before the SMM was technically capable of comprehensively observing the line of contact with satellites and drones. In the end, the SMM was a "hi-tech operation".
According to Greminger, a new edition of the mission would need a "UN umbrella" for various reasons. The OSCE is currently "not in good standing" with the Ukrainians and Russians. In addition, only the United Nations has the necessary experience in the military field. In addition, a blue helmet force would have a "wider pool" of possible troop contributors, for example from regions of the world that have not been so heavily exposed in the conflict between Moscow and Kiev. Greminger does not believe in a mission under Article 7 of the UN Charter, which would also be active in peacemaking. "There will be a monitoring operation, probably with military elements." It is therefore all the more important that this mission is linked to strong security guarantees for both sides.
No ceasefire before the US elections
There will "certainly be no movement" on the ceasefire before the US presidential elections because both Kiev and Moscow want to wait for the outcome of the elections. While Russia is dreaming of a "Yalta 2" - along the lines of the conference in 1945 at which the division of Europe was decided - or a disintegration of American support for Ukraine, Ukraine is preparing for ceasefire negotiations.
Kiev is now not concerned with maintaining territorial integrity, but with preserving its sovereignty and future Western orientation, including EU membership. Ukraine could be prepared to accept a temporary cession of territories "if the rest of the package fits", according to Greminger. The offensive in the Russian border region of Kursk, which was intended to obtain a "negotiating pledge", also points to this. This could be exchanged for the Russian-occupied regions in southern Ukraine, the former Swiss army officer suspects.
When asked about the future of the OSCE, which will commemorate the 50th anniversary of its founding act - the CSCE Helsinki Final Act - next year, Greminger said that a return of the "spirit of Helsinki" is not currently foreseeable. "In the foreseeable future, the European security order will have very little in common with the Helsinki logic," he said, referring to the thaw between the capitalist West and the communist East of Europe at that time. Whether there can be a return to the values of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE) depends largely on Moscow's future behavior, according to the expert.
"Active neutrality policy"
Greminger still sees a place for neutral states in the European security order. Although there are fewer neutral states than a few years ago, they are not just Switzerland, Austria or Malta. There are other non-aligned states in the Western Balkans, Eastern Europe and the Caucasus. These states would not be so happy if negotiations on a future European security order only took place between NATO and Russia.
Greminger also sees no need for Switzerland and Austria to join the Western alliance, on the contrary. "An active policy of neutrality is definitely more interesting than howling with the wolves." After all, there are currently 60 armed conflicts worldwide in which mediators are needed. "Neutrals are still very useful," he emphasized.
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