Germany wonders: Are the “traffic lights” going out?
Published: Thursday, Jan 25th 2024, 05:20
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This was probably not how Olaf Scholz had imagined his visit to the European Championship match between the German handball team and North Macedonia: No sooner had the stadium announcer officially welcomed the Chancellor than a whistling concert rang through the Mercedes-Benz Arena in Berlin. "I was glad that we then scored a goal relatively quickly so that we could focus on the sport," said Axel Kromer, Sports Director of the German Handball Federation, after the game, which the hosts won 34:25.
The chancellor as the "bogeyman of the nation", as the media commented. A good two years after the SPD head of government took office in December 2021, his approval ratings and those of the "traffic light" coalition of the Social Democrats, Liberals (FDP) and Greens have plummeted to record lows. According to various surveys, the three governing parties currently only have a combined approval rating of around 31%. According to a survey by the Ipsos Institute, only 10 percent of citizens are "very satisfied" with Scholz, while 57 percent are "very dissatisfied".
There is a ferment in Germany. Farmers recently paralyzed traffic in Berlin and elsewhere with tractor demonstrations. They are angry because the "traffic lights" are cutting subsidies for agricultural diesel in order to balance the state budget. Unlike the climate activists of the "Last Generation" with their road blockades, the farmers found a lot of sympathy among the population. This week, it is the train drivers who are keeping the country on tenterhooks with a strike against the state-owned Deutsche Bahn.
Few results and a lot of controversy
Economically, Europe's largest economy is treading water. With a decline in gross domestic product (GDP) of 0.3 percent, Germany slipped into recession last year, and the Federation of German Industries (BDI) expects "marginal economic growth" of 0.3 percent this year. Compared to most other industrialized countries, the country is falling further behind. German politics has "maneuvered itself into a complexity trap."
In various areas, such as housing construction or the expansion of renewable energies, the "traffic light" coalition, which started 2021 as a "progressive coalition", is falling short of its election promises. It also repeatedly makes negative headlines with disputes between the politically unequal partners in the center-left (SPD, Greens) and center-right (FDP) alliance.
However, Germans are particularly concerned about the issue of migration after the number of asylum seekers rose by almost half to more than 350,000 in 2023 compared to the previous year. According to the ARD Deutschlandtrend, immigration is currently the most important political issue for most Germans, and almost two thirds believe that Germany has more disadvantages than advantages as a result of immigration.
The right-wing populist AfD appears to be benefiting from this. Since the 2021 federal election, it has more than doubled its approval ratings at national level to around 22%. It is the second-strongest force behind opposition leader Friedrich Merz's Christian Democrats and could even become the strongest force in the state elections in the eastern German states of Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg in September. It is questionable whether the recent large demonstrations against right-wing extremism in many German cities will change this.
Can the coalition still hold out?
"It may be that Olaf Scholz's chancellorship can no longer be saved," wrote the "Süddeutsche Zeitung" in a commentary. Speculation about a "chancellor swap" was already doing the rounds in the media. The unpopular Scholz could be replaced by Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, the most popular government politician, it was said. However, all three "traffic light" partners in the Bundestag would have to go along with the election of a new head of government.
The deputy leader of the FDP, Wolfgang Kubicki, has already expressed doubts as to whether the coalition will last until the next general election, which is actually due in late summer or fall 2025. "The spirit that was there at the start of the Ampel is dissolving. For many people, there is no longer a recognizable common direction," Kubicki told the Nürnberger Nachrichten newspaper.
Opposition politicians call for new elections. However, the Bundestag cannot dissolve itself in Germany. New elections would only be possible if Scholz loses a vote of confidence in parliament. The FDP could fail to reach the five percent threshold in federal elections, and the SPD or Greens would possibly find themselves as junior partners in a government led by the CDU/CSU.
Meanwhile, the British Economist criticized Germany for no longer fulfilling its leadership role in Europe under Scholz - unlike during the long chancellorships of Helmut Kohl (CDU, 1982-1998) and Angela Merkel (CDU, 2005-2021).
The current chancellor is almost invisible. "A Google search shows that Germany's head of government is a man called Olaf Scholz, but he cuts such a colorless and unimpressive figure that you'd be forgiven for not knowing it," the London paper mocked.
©Keystone/SDA
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