Many uncertainties with regard to energy supply in winter
Published: Monday, Nov 6th 2023, 14:07
Updated At: Tuesday, Nov 7th 2023, 00:54
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Entgegen den schlimmsten Befürchtungen ist der Schweiz im letzten Winter nicht die Energie ausgegangen. Und die Situation hat sich seither sogar weiter entspannt. Trotzdem geben die Experten keine Entwarnung für diesen Winter.
Im Moment sieht es gut aus: Die Versorgung mit Strom, Gas, Heizöl und Benzin in der Schweiz ist gewährleistet. So sind zum Beispiel alle vier Schweizer Kernkraftwerke am Netz und produzieren Strom, und die Stauseen sind im langjährigen Durchschnitt gefüllt. Auch in den Nachbarländern gibt es derzeit keine Probleme mit der Stromversorgung.
Switzerland can therefore enter the cold season much more relaxed than a year ago. "European gas storage facilities are almost completely full and the availability of French nuclear power plants is significantly better than last winter," said the energy company Alpiq in response to an inquiry from the news agency AWP. At the same time, demand for electricity and gas has fallen significantly.
Wie kalt wird es werden?
However, this does not mean that there might not be a shortage in winter. Experience from last year has shown how quickly assessments can change, according to Bern-based BKW, for example. "It is therefore definitely good that Switzerland has reserves for difficult situations with the emergency power plant in Birr, the hydropower reserve and the pool of emergency power generators."
The situation on the electricity market remains fragile, also because it is closely linked to the European gas market, according to Alpiq's experts. Supply shocks on the gas market could change the situation abruptly - for example through strikes or damage to the energy infrastructure.
Last but not least, demand in winter is also heavily influenced by the weather. So the question is: how cold will the winter be in Europe? Switzerland is dependent on electricity imports from abroad during the winter months. In an "icy" winter, "electricity could well become scarce", says Tobias Habegger from BKW.
Hohe Nervosität auf dem Markt
Die künftige Entwicklung der Wirtschaft ist ebenfalls ein Fragezeichen: Es ist nicht sicher, ob die Nachfrage in Europa gedrückt bleiben wird. Auch in Asien, vor allem in China, könnte die Nachfrage nach Gas aufgrund einer wirtschaftlichen Erholung steigen. Das Angebot an LNG könnte dann in Europa knapp werden, sagt Thomas Hegglin vom Verband der Schweizerischen Gaswirtschaft (VSG).
It also remains to be seen whether Russian gas will still flow to Europe in winter. According to Hegglin, it is currently around twelve percent. "Efforts to replace Russian gas are being driven forward in Europe and the LNG infrastructure is being continuously optimized, but this won't happen overnight." The coming winter will also be the first winter entirely without German nuclear power.
All this uncertainty is also reflected on the markets: "We are seeing a lot of nervousness and therefore high volatility in energy prices," says Noël Graber from Axpo. The escalation of the Middle East conflict, for example, could be reflected in higher prices in the coming weeks, says Habegger from BKW. The conflict is overshadowing the "balanced" picture with currently above-average warm temperatures, high wind production, full gas storage facilities and high power plant availability.
Energiekrise noch nicht vorbei
Die Marktpreise für Strom und Erdgas befinden sich zwar nicht mehr auf dem extremen Rekordniveau von 2022, haben sich aber deutlich von diesen Höchstständen entfernt und sind immer noch höher als vor dem ersten sehr spürbaren Anstieg seit Herbst 2021. Und mit dem Beginn des Krieges in der Ukraine im Februar 2022 sind die Preise weiter explodiert.
"Prices have stabilized at an above-average level compared to the years before 2021," says the Association of Swiss Electricity Companies (VSE) with regard to the electricity market. However, a slight upward trend has recently become apparent again, presumably due to the war in the Middle East. However, the continued above-average prices are also an expression of the fact that "Europe has not yet overcome the energy crisis".
©Keystone/SDA
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