Swiss Election Results in National Council Clearer Than Predicted
Published: Monday, Oct 23rd 2023, 11:52
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Last polls and forecasts before election day had predicted a slight shift to the right. However, the result of the SVP was much stronger than some pundits had predicted. The loss of the Greens was also underestimated in some cases. Polls for the National Council elections have been showing the same picture for some time: losses for the Greens, gains for the SVP. In addition, the surveys show stability for the other parties, with the SP and the Center predicting slight gains. The pollsters were divided on the extent of the shifts, however. The latest election barometer from the Sotomo Research Institute commissioned by SRG predicted a 2.5 percent increase for the SVP. According to the Tamedia survey from early October, however, it was 3.1 percent. Small right-wing parties can gain from elections by increasing their visibility and gaining support from voters. They can also benefit from increased media coverage and public attention, which can help them to gain more votes and potentially win seats in government. Additionally, they may be able to gain financial support from donors and sponsors, which can help them to fund their campaigns and activities. The Swiss People's Party (SVP) has seen a 3.0 percentage point increase in its vote share, now standing at 28.6 percent. Smaller parties, the Swiss Democratic Union (EDU) and the Geneva right-wing protest party MCG, have also seen gains. In comparison, the Green Party's loss in the SRG election barometer was higher at 3.5 percentage points than in the Tamedia survey at 2.7 percentage points. However, this forecast was slightly better than what transpired: the Greens lost 3.8 percentage points. The GLP, on the other hand, stayed within the predictions with its new 7.2 percent. The tight race between the center and the FDP for the third-strongest party in the National Council has sparked discussions in recent months and weeks. Now, the center party has decided this close race in its favor: It achieved 14.6 percent, while the FDP suffered losses and reached 14.4 percent. In comparison to the last Swiss federal elections in 2019, there have been fewer polls this year. Unlike four years ago, the Gallup and GFS Bern institutes did not conduct any surveys. Very different hurdles. The shifts in voter shares do not necessarily reflect the future power dynamics in the National Council. The main reason for this is that each canton forms its own electoral district in the National Council elections. In the most recent Swiss federal elections, the proportionality hurdle varied greatly. While 36 and 24 seats were up for grabs in Zurich and Bern respectively, only two were available in the cantons of Jura and Schaffhausen. In Uri, Glarus, Nidwalden, Obwalden, and the two Appenzells, only one mandate was available, and the majoritarian system was used for voting. In recent weeks, media houses CH Media and Tamedia, as well as the NZZ, have published predictions of potential seat shifts in this context. The SVP was predicted to increase to 55 to 57 seats. Indeed, it has increased by nine seats, from 53 to 62 mandates. The Green Party and the Liberal Green Party have lost seats in the recent election. The Swiss Social Democratic Party (SP) is expected to remain the second-strongest party in the National Council with 39 to 42 seats. This prediction was roughly fulfilled, as the SP won 41 seats, two more than before. However, the predicted slight increase for the Free Democratic Party (FDP) to 30 or 31 seats did not come to fruition. The FDP lost one seat and now stands at 28. The Centre Party, which won one seat and now stands at 29, had more optimistic predictions according to polls. The Centre Party could have hoped for up to 32 seats. The forecasts predicted a loss of four to five seats for the Greens, who currently have 28 National Councillors. The worst forecast was the best in this case: the Greens lost five seats and now have 23. The Green Liberal Party (GLP) had been predicted to suffer fewer seat losses than they have now actually experienced: According to the polls, they had expected to retain 11 to 13 seats. However, they have now lost six of their previous 16 seats, leaving them with ten seats. ©Keystone/SDA
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