Many uncertainties with regard to energy supply in winter
Published: Monday, Nov 6th 2023, 14:07
Mise à jour le : Mardi 7 novembre 2023, 00:54
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Contrairement à ce que l'on craignait, la Suisse n'a pas manqué d'énergie l'hiver dernier. Et la situation s'est encore détendue depuis. Néanmoins, les experts ne donnent pas le feu vert pour cet hiver.
Les choses se présentent bien en ce moment : L'approvisionnement en électricité, en gaz, en mazout et en essence est garanti en Suisse. Par exemple, les quatre centrales nucléaires suisses sont raccordées au réseau et produisent de l'électricité, et les lacs de retenue sont remplis conformément à la moyenne à long terme. Il n'y a pas non plus de problèmes d'approvisionnement en électricité dans les pays voisins.
Switzerland can therefore enter the cold season much more relaxed than a year ago. "European gas storage facilities are almost completely full and the availability of French nuclear power plants is significantly better than last winter," said the energy company Alpiq in response to an inquiry from the news agency AWP. At the same time, demand for electricity and gas has fallen significantly.
Jusqu'à quel point le froid va-t-il s'installer ?
However, this does not mean that there might not be a shortage in winter. Experience from last year has shown how quickly assessments can change, according to Bern-based BKW, for example. "It is therefore definitely good that Switzerland has reserves for difficult situations with the emergency power plant in Birr, the hydropower reserve and the pool of emergency power generators."
The situation on the electricity market remains fragile, also because it is closely linked to the European gas market, according to Alpiq's experts. Supply shocks on the gas market could change the situation abruptly - for example through strikes or damage to the energy infrastructure.
Last but not least, demand in winter is also heavily influenced by the weather. So the question is: how cold will the winter be in Europe? Switzerland is dependent on electricity imports from abroad during the winter months. In an "icy" winter, "electricity could well become scarce", says Tobias Habegger from BKW.
Grande nervosité sur le marché
L'évolution future de l'économie est également un point d'interrogation : il n'est pas certain que la demande en Europe reste déprimée. La demande de gaz en Asie, en particulier en Chine, pourrait également augmenter en raison d'une reprise économique. L'offre de GNL pourrait alors se raréfier en Europe, explique Thomas Hegglin, de l'Association suisse de l'industrie gazière (VSG).
It also remains to be seen whether Russian gas will still flow to Europe in winter. According to Hegglin, it is currently around twelve percent. "Efforts to replace Russian gas are being driven forward in Europe and the LNG infrastructure is being continuously optimized, but this won't happen overnight." The coming winter will also be the first winter entirely without German nuclear power.
All this uncertainty is also reflected on the markets: "We are seeing a lot of nervousness and therefore high volatility in energy prices," says Noël Graber from Axpo. The escalation of the Middle East conflict, for example, could be reflected in higher prices in the coming weeks, says Habegger from BKW. The conflict is overshadowing the "balanced" picture with currently above-average warm temperatures, high wind production, full gas storage facilities and high power plant availability.
La crise de l'énergie n'est pas encore terminée
Bien que les prix du marché de l'électricité et du gaz naturel n'atteignent plus les niveaux records extrêmes de 2022, ils ont nettement reculé par rapport à ces sommets, mais restent plus élevés qu'avant la première augmentation très sensible depuis l'automne 2021. Et avec le début de la guerre en Ukraine en février 2022, les prix ont continué à exploser.
"Prices have stabilized at an above-average level compared to the years before 2021," says the Association of Swiss Electricity Companies (VSE) with regard to the electricity market. However, a slight upward trend has recently become apparent again, presumably due to the war in the Middle East. However, the continued above-average prices are also an expression of the fact that "Europe has not yet overcome the energy crisis".
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