Cassis unlikely to bring China to a Ukraine peace conference
Published: Tuesday, Feb 6th 2024, 17:10
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Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis is currently on a trip to Asia to promote the Ukraine peace conference proposed by Switzerland. During his visit to Beijing on Wednesday, he is likely to fall flat on his face, as various experts told the Keystone-SDA news agency.
The government in Beijing is unlikely to warm to a Ukraine peace summit, suspects Nico Luchsinger, Executive Director of the non-governmental organization Asia Society Switzerland.
Given the geopolitical tensions and its relative isolation between the major powers, Beijing is unlikely to engage in a process that puts it on a confrontational course with Moscow, said Lionel Fatton, assistant professor of international relations at Webster University in Geneva.
Mr Cassis will meet his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi and Vice President Han Zheng in Beijing on Wednesday. One focus of his mission will be the announcement by President Viola Amherd that Switzerland is prepared to organize a peace summit on Ukraine.
Key players are on the sidelines
However, this summit could lack substance, as many observers fear. Russia has already given the plans the cold shoulder. Hopes are still pinned on the participation of the Brics states with their proximity to Russia, i.e. Brazil, India, South Africa or China and - outside of the Brics - Saudi Arabia.
Simona Grano, a professor at the Asia Society's China Analysis Center, admits that if China were to make a statement in favour of the summit, it would be a sensation and an enormous gain in prestige for Switzerland. What she expects, however, are some vague formulas in favor of a peace solution.
India's support for the summit is out of the question. According to the experts interviewed, New Delhi, where Cassis was staying at the beginning of the week, has too strong trade relations with Russia to be able to afford any irritation.
Amherd's announcement that Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky would be attending the summit was reportedly more likely to fuel skepticism in the global South about Swiss neutrality.
Good services as a discontinued model
Fatton notes that Switzerland's good offices are less and less able to keep pace with international dynamics. During the Foreign Minister's trip, however, Swiss diplomacy wanted to show its willingness to establish a dialog beyond the geopolitical blocs.
Switzerland is in a phase of resuming contacts with China. The Chinese government showed its goodwill in January with the state visit of Prime Minister Li Qiang to Bern. For his part, Cassis wants to set the mechanisms in Beijing in motion. The last time he met a Chinese foreign minister was four years ago.
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