Duel in Brandenburg: AfD and SPD fight for election victory
Published: Monday, Sep 16th 2024, 11:20
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Since German reunification in 1990, the Social Democrats (SPD) have been the head of government in the eastern German state of Brandenburg.
Now the right-wing populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the SPD are engaged in a duel in the last few meters before this Sunday's election. Three weeks after the elections in the federal states of Saxony and Thuringia, the question on September 22 is whether the AfD will become the strongest force - it would be the first time in Brandenburg and the second time ever in a state election, after Thuringia. The Brandenburg Office for the Protection of the Constitution (domestic intelligence service) classifies the AfD as a suspected right-wing extremist organization.
The latest polls show a mixed picture. In the Brandenburg trend by Infratest dimap for ARD, the SPD almost catches up with the AfD at 26%, which is at 27%. The gap is greater in the ZDF Politbarometer Extra survey by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, where the SPD is also at 26%, but the AfD is at 29%. If the AfD were to become the strongest party, it would probably not be able to govern: No other party wants to work with it.
Catching up with distance to the federal government
The election is also a vote on SPD Minister President Dietmar Woidke. The 62-year-old, who has been in power for eleven years, is putting all his eggs in one basket: he wants to step down if the AfD wins the election on Sunday and not the SPD. "Then I'll be gone," he says. Woidke only wants to remain a member of the state parliament if he wins the mandate again.
However, he is still optimistic about the outcome of the election: "I am firmly convinced that we will make it," Woidke asserts. Among other things, he draws this optimism from the comparatively high economic growth and the establishment of the US car manufacturer Tesla in the state - and from the fact that the SPD already managed to catch up with the AfD in the last few meters of the 2019 election.
Woidke has started a race to catch up, which is completely contrary to the situation of the SPD in Germany as a whole. In the latest polls, the party came in at 14 percent nationwide, which is almost half that of Brandenburg. No wonder Woidke does not necessarily want to campaign with SPD Chancellor Olaf Scholz, even though he lives in Brandenburg's capital Potsdam. After all, Scholz was a guest at the SPD summer party in Potsdam - not on stage, but in conversation and taking selfies with comrades.
Should the AfD become the strongest party and the SPD only come second, the current Minister of Finance, Katrin Lange, would presumably have first dibs on succeeding Woidke as deputy head of the SPD - or would initially have the difficult task of forming a government.
AfD wants to "smash" traffic lights
The AfD wants to "chase" Woidke out of the state chancellery, as state leader René Springer put it at an election campaign event in Forst - Woidke's home town. AfD lead candidate Hans-Christoph Berndt, who the Office for the Protection of the Constitution classifies as right-wing extremist, also wants to use the election to send a signal against the federal government: "We also have it in our hands to smash the traffic lights with these blows," he said in Forst.
Extremism researcher Gideon Botsch believes that the AfD in Brandenburg has become more radical as a result of the migration debate. "The language is clearly radicalized, the appearance is clearly radicalized, and there is also a tendency towards Nazification," said the Potsdam-based political researcher.
CDU sees "double Woidke"
The suspected Islamist attack in Solingen in western Germany at the end of August, which left three dead and eight injured, has once again intensified the debate on migration and asylum. Woidke is calling for the migration policy of the past ten years to be put to the test. The chairman of the Christian Democrats (CDU) in Brandenburg, Jan Redmann, speaks of the "double Woidke", who criticizes the SPD in the federal government and changes sides on issues.
Redmann has been calling for more efforts to restrict irregular migration for months. He wants to succeed Woidke as Minister President. He also sees the election as an opportunity to "eliminate" the coalition government of the SPD, Greens and Liberals (FDP) in Berlin. Redmann's driving an electric scooter in July with 1.3 per mille alcohol in his blood seems to have been dismissed; he has to pay a fine of 8,000 euros.
Potentially difficult government formation
In the latest polls, however, the CDU in Brandenburg is only at 15 to 16% - just ahead of the new left-wing populist alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), which for some is a "black box", i.e. a party with unknown content. In recent surveys, it has achieved 13 to 14 percent.
So far, the SPD has governed Brandenburg with the CDU and the Greens. The Greens, as well as the Left Party and the Free Voters, must fear for their re-entry into the state parliament. However, a direct mandate is enough to be represented in parliament again. The FDP is not shown individually in the latest polls - it is well below 5 percent.
It remains to be seen what coalition options will arise after the election: It may not be enough to continue the current governing coalition. However, Woidke has not yet commented on the subject of "coalitions of choice" - he is relying on a strong SPD for the time being. It is possible that the BSW could come into play in the formation of a government. But BSW state leader and top candidate Robert Crumbach does not want to join the government at any price. "You can also be very effective as the opposition," he says.
Crumbach sees a clear signal that Germany is taking diplomatic action to end the war in Ukraine as a condition for government participation. Crumbach rejects cooperation with the AfD, but does not rule out support for individual AfD motions.
©Keystone/SDA
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