Right on the rise, Scholz under pressure – four consequences of the European elections
Published: Monday, Jun 10th 2024, 05:20
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After the European elections, the right-wing parties in particular are celebrating. In Austria and France, for example, the right-wing populists have become the strongest force. The AfD also made gains in Germany and even came first in the east. The "traffic light" coalition led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) went down to defeat - not a good omen for the state elections in three eastern German states in the fall.
As the Federal Returning Officer announced on her website early Monday morning after counting all 400 districts, the CDU/CSU increased slightly to 30.0% (2019: 28.9). The AfD achieved its best result to date in a nationwide vote with 15.9% (2019: 11%) - although this was lower than interim poll results. In eastern Germany, the party is the strongest force by a wide margin. The SPD, which also relied on Chancellor Olaf Scholz as a driving force in the election campaign, fell to 13.9% (15.8) - its worst result ever in a nationwide election. The Greens slipped to 11.9 percent (20.5). The FDP lost only slightly, coming in at 5.2 percent (5.4).
The Left Party landed a meagre 2.7 percent (5.5) - its worst result in European elections. The BSW party achieved 6.2 percent from a standing start. The Free Voters achieved 2.7 percent (2.2), while the Volt party came in at 2.6 percent (0.7).
In contrast to federal and state elections, the European elections in Germany do not have a threshold clause, i.e. a five percent hurdle. According to projections, voter turnout is 65%. In 2019, it was 61.4%, putting Germany in fifth place among the 27 EU member states. For the first time, 16 and 17-year-olds were also allowed to vote in a European election in Germany.
Answers to four questions that arise after the result:
Could there be an AfD prime minister after the state elections in Thuringia, Saxony and Brandenburg?
If the AfD achieves results similar to those in the European elections, it could come close to this goal - and it is not entirely out of the question, at least in Saxony. If the state election results in Saxony were to be similar to those of the European elections, it could theoretically happen that only the AfD, CDU and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) would enter the state parliament and all others would fail to reach the five percent threshold. If the CDU and BSW were to win even fewer seats than the AfD, which also does not seem out of the question when looking at the European election results, they would not be able to prevent the election of an AfD Minister President.
How dangerous is the election result for Scholz and the traffic lights?
French President Emmanuel Macron made short work of the election evening. Just one hour after announcing the resounding defeat of his centrist bloc against the right-wing nationalist Marine Le Pen, he unceremoniously announced a new parliamentary election to be held in three weeks' time. "So at the end of this day, I can't pretend that nothing has happened," he said.
Would that also be something for Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who has achieved the worst result ever in a national election with his SPD? The CDU/CSU is already calling for him to face a vote of confidence. And there would also be a historical precedent for this: in 2005, the then SPD Chancellor Gerhard Schröder did exactly that after an election defeat in North Rhine-Westphalia in order to bring about a new Bundestag election.
However, Scholz is not the type to just throw in the towel. On election night, he demonstratively strolled calmly through the election party in Berlin's Willy Brandt House and calmly took selfies with his comrades - as if nothing had happened. However, the next few weeks could be uncomfortable for him. SPD leader Lars Klingbeil is already hinting that his party will now take a tougher stance in the coalition. Perhaps even at the Chancellor's expense. "Our people want to see us fight," said Klingbeil on election night. However, the electoral failures of the Greens and the FDP will not help the coalition's willingness to compromise either - and this in the midst of difficult budget negotiations, which are to be concluded by July 3. The coalition is therefore likely to face turbulent weeks ahead.
Will CDU leader Friedrich Merz now be the Union's candidate for chancellor?
That remains to be seen. In any case, Merz cannot sit back and relax. In view of the Union's clear victory, it is not necessarily to be expected that an internal debate will break out within the Union on Monday as to whether the 68-year-old Sauerland native would actually be the right candidate to replace Scholz after the next general election. But that cannot be ruled out. For example, Merz has long been accused of not being well received by younger people or women.
According to an analysis by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen on Sunday, the AfD is on a par with the CDU/CSU in the 16 to 24 age group with 17%, which only receives half as many votes from young people as it does overall. It is quite possible that the CDU/CSU is also discussing Merz's course on security and migration. According to a preliminary analysis of voter migration by Infratest Dimap for ARD, 600,000 people have switched from the CDU/CSU to the AfD, 250,000 to the BSW (Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance) and 1.28 million to the non-voters. Merz could also be blamed for this.
In the K question, which the CDU and CSU want to decide after the state elections in September, the election analyses are not really encouraging for Merz either. According to an analysis by the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen on Sunday, 66% of citizens are dissatisfied with the federal government - but only 30% think that the CDU/CSU would do a better job. Furthermore, neither Merz nor CSU leader Markus Söder can clearly distinguish themselves from Scholz in terms of popularity.
Are Le Pen, Meloni and co. now calling the shots in the EU?
No. The course of the EU is primarily determined by the European Council and nothing will change there as a result of the European elections. In the European Council, the body of heads of state and government, the parties of the center-right EPP alliance currently have 13 members and are therefore by far the largest camp.
The EPP also remains the strongest political force in the European Parliament. Even if all right-wing parties were to join forces, they would probably have less than 200 of the future 720 seats and would therefore be far from a majority. This means that EPP lead candidate Ursula von der Leyen is not mathematically dependent on votes from the far right to be elected President of the European Commission for a second time.
360 million citizens were eligible to vote
Around 360 million citizens were eligible to vote in the 27 EU member states, including almost 61 million Germans. From Thursday to Sunday - depending on the country - 720 representatives were elected to the new European Parliament, 96 of them in Germany on the last day. Apart from the parliamentary elections in India, this is the largest democratic vote in the world - and the only direct election across national borders.
©Keystone/SDA
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