SRG survey shows relative majority in favor of BVG reform
Published: Friday, Aug 16th 2024, 06:10
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If the BVG reform had already been voted on on August 4, the bill would only have received a relative majority. The biodiversity initiative would have been narrowly accepted. This is the result of the first poll commissioned by SRG for the vote on September 22.
According to the survey published on Friday by the JRC Bern research institute, 49% of respondents would have definitely or somewhat approved of the BVG reform at the beginning of August. 39 percent would have definitely or rather put a "no" in the ballot box. 12 percent said they were still undecided.
Shifts to be expected
Overall, the formation of opinion is not very advanced, the authors of the study wrote. Shifts can still be expected in the course of the referendum campaign. They did not dare to make a prediction: as things stand today, the outcome of the vote must be left open.
Support for the BVG reform is highest among GLP, FDP and centrist supporters - with yes shares of 70, 68 and 63 percent respectively.
Among supporters of the SP, on the other hand, the "no" vote predominates - albeit relatively narrowly at 51%. Among supporters of the Greens, 42% are in favor and 38% against. A similar picture emerges among the SVP base: 46% are in favor and 42% are against. Among those not affiliated with a political party, approval outweighs disapproval at 43% to 39%.
At the political poles, the slogans of the respective parties were only partially effective, according to the study. The SP and the Greens reject the BVG reform, while the SVP supports the proposal.
According to the survey, rejection of the BVG reform is higher than average in French-speaking Switzerland and among people who distrust the government. The higher a person's level of education and income, the more likely they are to vote yes.
Very different results
The SRG survey on the BVG reform shows a significantly better starting position for the pro camp than the first voting survey published on Wednesday by Tamedia and "20 Minuten". In the survey conducted by the Leewas Institute, 59% of respondents said they wanted to reject the bill, while only 33% said they agreed.
However, the two surveys are very close to each other when it comes to the biodiversity initiative: in the SRG survey, 51% of respondents said they wanted to accept the referendum. 42 percent said they wanted to vote no. 6 percent were still undecided.
In the survey published two days earlier by Tamedia and "20 Minuten", the corresponding percentages were almost exactly the same, with 51 percent in favor, 42 percent against and 7 percent undecided.
Skepticism in the countryside
According to the SRG survey, there is a left-right conflict with regard to the biodiversity initiative: among Green and SP supporters, approval clearly outweighs support, with 95% and 85% in favor respectively. Among the GLP's base, 67% still support the biodiversity initiative. The "no" vote dominates among the centrists with 56%, while the FDP and SVP are even more clearly opposed with "no" votes of 71% and 72% respectively.
According to the authors of the study, there were also clear differences between urban and rural areas and between the sexes. While the "no" camp is ahead in rural areas with 54%, the initiative has majorities in both small and medium-sized as well as large conurbations. However, at 53% and 56% respectively, these are also not very clear.
While 52 percent of men reject the initiative and only 44 want to vote in favor of it, 58 percent of women say yes and 35 percent want to put a no vote in the ballot box.
Looking at the different language regions, approval is clearly higher in French-speaking Switzerland (57%) than in German-speaking Switzerland (49%).
Decisive course of the debate
The debate on the biodiversity initiative has only just begun and its progress will ultimately determine the outcome of the vote, the authors of the study wrote. If the Yes side succeeds in presenting biodiversity as an underestimated problem, it could retain its narrow majority.
However, they pointed out that it is normal for initiatives to lose support during the voting campaign. This is because concrete effects gain weight in the discussion: "The initiative has probably already lost some of its lead in the countryside and in German-speaking Switzerland this summer."
For the SRG survey, JRC Bern interviewed 12,332 voters by telephone and online between July 29 and August 12, 2024. The statistical margin of error is +/-2.8 percentage points.
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