Friendship without borders? Putin visits China
Published: Thursday, May 16th 2024, 09:30
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In a symbolic move, Russian President Vladimir Putin's first trip abroad after his inauguration is to China. With the rising sun, his plane landed at Beijing Capital Airport on Thursday.
State and party leader Xi Jinping received his "old friend" with full honors and cheered on by children at the Great Hall of the People like no other state guest. The two-day visit is intended to visibly demonstrate the quality of relations. "Russia-China relations have reached the highest level and are getting stronger despite the difficult global situation," the Kremlin leader told China's state agency Xinhua in advance.
Beijing is Moscow's most important economic and political partner. Putin's last state visit was in 2018. Last autumn, the 71-year-old traveled to Beijing for an international forum and spoke to Xi personally on the sidelines. According to his own statements, he has met the Chinese president more than 40 times. While the West reacted to the Russian attack on Ukraine with sanctions, Beijing has not condemned the invasion, is neutral and backs Russia in the UN Security Council. Even before the invasion, the two agreed on a friendship "without borders". Xi once again promised Putin China's cooperation.
Alliance against the West
"Moscow and Beijing will use the opportunity to underline their close partnership and shared ambitions to reform the global order and form a counterbalance to the US," says analyst Helena Legarda from the Merics China Research Institute in Berlin. According to her, the two are also likely to discuss the Gaza war and criticism of the USA as well as a possible circumvention of Western sanctions.
Of course, Putin's primary aim is to strengthen the alliance against the West. On the one hand, closing ranks is important as a gesture to the outside world to show that Moscow is not isolated. On the other hand, the Kremlin is hoping for benevolent neutrality in its war of aggression against Ukraine.
China at conference in Switzerland?
Moscow does not want Beijing representatives to attend the peace conference in Switzerland on June 15 and 16 under any circumstances. China has not yet confirmed its attendance, but is considered a key participant due to its influence on Moscow. Putin has therefore demonstratively praised the Chinese "peace initiative", which speaks of the "legitimate security interests" of all states.
More than a year ago, China published a twelve-point plan to resolve the "Ukraine crisis". In it, Beijing called for the concerns of all countries to be taken seriously. However, there were no detailed proposals for a solution, which is why the plan met with international criticism. Moscow has always justified its attack on Ukraine by defending its own security interests.
During Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's visit in April, the top Russian diplomat tried to work out a common line with China. Both countries were determined to create a multipolar world and to resist attempts to "slow down the long overdue processes of democratization and justice." This is precisely what the USA and its allies are trying to do, Lavrov claimed.
Trade flourishes
Against this backdrop, trade between the neighbors has reached a record high. Last year, the volume of trade between Russia and China rose by 26% to 240 billion dollars. The trend continued in the first quarter of 2024. Just under 77 billion dollars represents an increase of 4.7 percent compared to the same period last year. Russia mainly sells oil, gas and coal, copper ore, timber and seafood, while it purchases goods from China that it previously bought mainly in the West, i.e. machinery, cars, smartphones and computers.
Despite the impressive figures at first glance, Putin is unlikely to be pleased: Imports from China fell slightly in the first quarter, which is probably due to the fact that Beijing restricted exports of sanctioned goods to Russia under pressure from the West. In addition, Chinese banks have recently tightened their receivables from Russian clients in order to protect themselves against subsequent sanctions imposed by the USA. Washington wants to cut Moscow off from goods that can be used for civilian and military purposes and target Chinese banks that make transfers for such transactions. The restrictions on payment transactions are extremely inconvenient for Moscow.
Xi recently in Europe
However, unlike Russia, China still has room for maneuver in its relations with Western countries. Putin's visit to the "Middle Kingdom" comes just a short time after Xi's trip to Europe, which took the Chinese leader to France, Hungary and Serbia. Chinese state radio celebrated the visit as a success. However, no progress was made in Paris, Budapest and Bucharest on the subject of the war in Ukraine. China sees France as a "bridge between the West and China", as the state-run "Global Times" headlined. The powerful EU country could help to influence Europe.
In Hungary, China already has a well-meaning and Russia-friendly partner country and EU member that regularly puts the brakes on Brussels' decisions. EU aspirant Serbia has also maintained a close economic partnership with Beijing and Moscow for years.
More gas for China?
Economic issues play a role during Putin's visit. Russia wants to push ahead with the expansion of the gas partnership. In 2023, 22.7 billion cubic meters of gas were transported to China via the Kraft Siberia pipeline - the pipeline's capacity can be expanded to 38 billion cubic meters per year. However, Moscow is already dreaming of a follow-up project, Kraft Siberia 2, with a capacity of 50 billion cubic meters. This should make up for the loss of supplies to the west.
However, the parameters for the ambitious project, which is worth billions, have not yet been agreed, partly because China does not want to commit itself too much and is continuing to focus on diversifying its supplies. Russia may have to give further discounts on its gas.
The visit will be closely followed in Europe. In particular, statements on the war in Ukraine are likely to be closely monitored. Expert Legarda is rather pessimistic: "Europe should not expect Beijing to change its stance on the war in Ukraine."
©Keystone/SDA
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