European elections: Right on the rise
Published: Monday, Jun 10th 2024, 01:00
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Right-wing parties have achieved major successes in the European elections in several countries. In Italy, the Fratelli d'Italia (Brothers of Italy) party of right-wing Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni was clearly ahead on Sunday. In France, Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National party won. President Emmanuel Macron then called an early election to the National Assembly.
In Austria, the right-wing FPÖ became the strongest party. In Germany, the AfD achieved its best result to date, coming in second behind the CDU/CSU.
Across Europe, the two previous right-wing populist party alliances EKR and ID made significant gains in some cases. Overall, however, the clearly pro-European camp remains by far the largest in the European Parliament. Even if all right-wing parties were to join forces, they would probably end up with fewer than 200 seats and would therefore be far from a majority. This lies at 361 seats.
The winner of the European elections is the center-right EPP alliance with German lead candidate Ursula von der Leyen. The CDU politician can hope for a second term as President of the EU Commission.
Italy: Meloni comes out on top
According to a projection by TV station Rai, Meloni's party achieved 27.7% in Italy - an increase of more than 20 points compared to the 2019 European elections. A left-wing alliance led by the social democratic PD came second with 23.7%.
Meloni was also the lead candidate in the election for the Fratelli d'Italia, which has its origins in the post-fascist movement. However, she does not want to move to the European Parliament, but wants to remain in Rome as Prime Minister. The 47-year-old has led a coalition of three right-wing parties since October 2022. With the current result, her influence at European level is likely to increase.
Germany: AfD strong - but weaker than at the beginning of the year
In Germany, the European elections were also an important mood test ahead of the three state elections in Thuringia, Saxony and Brandenburg in September and the Bundestag elections next year. The fact that the AfD is in first place by a large margin in eastern Germany is particularly significant.
Despite the controversy surrounding its lead candidate, the party made strong gains nationwide. According to projections, it achieved between 15.8% and 15.9%, an increase of almost five points compared to 2019. It therefore performed better than all of the "traffic light" parties - the SPD came in at 14%, the Greens at 11.9% and the FDP at 5.1%. However, the CDU/CSU is a long way behind in first place with 30.2% to 30.3%.
The AfD result was weaker than in the polls at the beginning of the year. At that time, it had temporarily been at more than 20 percent. However, accusations against its lead candidate Maximilian Krah and the number two on the European election list, Petr Bystron, caused difficulties for the party.
France: Le Pen's right-wing nationalists in the lead
The European elections are a bitter defeat for the French president. According to projections, the right-wing nationalist party Rassemblement National (RN) led by Marine Le Pen won around 32% - more than twice as much as Macron's camp. As a consequence, the head of state announced a new election for the lower house of parliament, with two rounds scheduled for June 30 and July 7. "So at the end of this day, I can't pretend that nothing has happened," he said.
Macron's centrist camp was already weakened. It has not had an absolute majority in the National Assembly since 2022. Governing since then has been difficult. The focus is also on the presidential election in just under three years' time. Macron, who beat Le Pen twice in the run-off, is not allowed to run again. It is still unclear who the centrists will send into the race and who would stand a chance against Le Pen. The daughter of far-right party founder Jean-Marie Le Pen has managed to present a much more moderate image and make the party electable right up to the bourgeois camp.
Austria: FPÖ on the rise ahead of the parliamentary elections in the fall
This is the first time that the right-wing populists have come first in a nationwide election in Austria. According to preliminary results, the FPÖ received 25.5 percent of the vote. The conservative ÖVP achieved 24.7 percent. The social democratic SPÖ follows with 23.3 percent.
During the election campaign, the FPÖ often emphasized its EU scepticism under the slogan "Stop EU madness" and portrayed the EU as a warmongering force in the Ukraine conflict. For party leader Herbert Kickl, the goal of becoming the next chancellor seems to be getting closer. A new parliament will be elected in Austria in the fall.
The Europe-wide result: center-right in the lead
In the slightly enlarged European Parliament, the EPP with the German parties CDU and CSU remains the strongest force according to an initial Europe-wide projection late this evening. This means that it can occupy 189 of the 720 seats (previously 176 of 705).
The right-wing populist party alliances EKR and ID have 72 (most recently 69) and 58 (most recently 49) seats respectively. This does not include the AfD MPs, as the AfD was excluded from the ID parliamentary group shortly before the election.
The Social Democrats remain the second strongest camp. They have 135 seats (most recently 139). They are followed by the Liberals, who have slipped to 80 seats (most recently 102). The Greens are a big loser. They now only have 52 seats (previously 71).
What does this mean for European policy?
In principle, finding a majority in the European Parliament could become even more difficult. The future balance of power there will also depend on whether parties from the previous right-wing alliances ECR and ID form a new alliance. France's Marine Le Pen recently campaigned for this with the Italian head of government Meloni.
It is likely that the center-right EPP alliance will hold talks with the Social Democrats, Liberals and Greens in the coming days in order to agree on a loose cooperation that could then also secure a majority for von der Leyen's election. Theoretically, possibilities for cooperation with individual right-wing parties could also be explored. The EPP, for example, did not rule out cooperation with Meloni before the election. Her Fratelli d'Italia have so far belonged to the right-wing conservative ECR group.
Whether EU policy as a whole moves to the right does not only depend on the majorities in Parliament. The balance of power in the Council of the EU member states is also decisive. The outcome of the 2027 presidential election in France is likely to play an important role here.
©Keystone/SDA
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