Election duel in Brandenburg: AfD and SPD fight for victory
Published: Friday, Sep 20th 2024, 11:10
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Since German reunification in 1990, the Social Democrats (SPD) have been the head of government in the federal state of Brandenburg.
Now the right-wing populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the SPD are fighting a duel in the last few meters before the election. Three weeks after the elections in Saxony and Thuringia, Sunday is not just about whether the AfD becomes the strongest party - it would be the first time in Brandenburg and the second time ever after Thuringia in a state election.
The Brandenburg Office for the Protection of the Constitution (domestic intelligence service) classifies the AfD as a suspected right-wing extremist party. However, a government option is not yet in sight, as no party wants to form a coalition with it.
The future of Minister President Dietmar Woidke is also at stake on Sunday. The 62-year-old has put all his eggs in one basket. For him, the election is the "biggest political challenge of my entire life", he told n-tv.
He does not want to remain in government if the AfD wins the elections. "Then I'll be gone." If he wins his direct mandate, however, Woidke wants to remain a member of the state parliament.
The latest polls do not paint a very clear picture. In Thursday's ZDF Politbarometer Extra by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, the AfD is at 28% and the SPD at 27%.
They are followed by the Christian Democrats (CDU) with 14% and the left-wing populist alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) with 13%. According to the survey, the Greens, Left Party and BVB/Free Voters did not make it over the five percent hurdle.
However, a party or association can also enter the state parliament with at least one direct mandate if it falls short of this. Earlier polls had seen the AfD ahead of the SPD by a larger margin in some cases.
Catching up with distance to the federal government
The incumbent Woidke is confident about the outcome of the election. He draws this optimism from, among other things, the comparatively high economic growth, the establishment of the US car manufacturer Tesla, which he helped to arrange, the majority of polls that want to keep him in office - and the fact that the SPD already managed to catch up with the AfD in the last few meters of the 2019 election.
The AfD's lead turned in favor of the SPD nine days earlier.
In recent weeks, Woidke has started a race to catch up, which is completely contrary to the SPD's situation nationwide. In the latest polls, the party came in at around 15 percent nationwide. No wonder Woidke does not necessarily want to campaign with SPD Chancellor Olaf Scholz, even though he lives in Potsdam.
However, Scholz is visiting Brandenburg several times as part of his summer trip. Woidke received surprising support from Saxony's CDU head of government Michael Kretschmer, who called for stability and said: "We have to stick together."
In Saxony, Kretschmer managed to bring the CDU into first place. Should the AfD become the strongest party in Brandenburg and the SPD come second, Finance Minister Katrin Lange would presumably have first dibs on succeeding Woidke as deputy state leader of the SPD.
First of all, there is the difficult task of forming a government. However, Science Minister Manja Schüle and parliamentary group leader Daniel Keller are also considered potential candidates.
AfD wants to "smash" traffic lights
The AfD wants to "chase" Woidke out of the state chancellery, as state leader René Springer put it at an election campaign event in Forst (Lausitz) - Woidke's home town. AfD lead candidate Hans-Christoph Berndt, who is classified as far-right by the Office for the Protection of the Constitution, also wants to use the election to send a signal against the federal government: "We also have it in our hands to smash the traffic lights with these blows," he said in Forst.
Extremism researcher Gideon Botsch believes that the AfD in Brandenburg has become more radical as a result of the migration debate. "The language is clearly radicalized, the appearance is clearly radicalized, and there is also a tendency towards Nazification," said the Potsdam-based political researcher.
CDU sees "double Woidke"
The suspected Islamist attack in Solingen at the end of August, which left three people dead, has intensified the debate on migration and asylum. Shortly before the election, CDU Interior Minister Michael Stübgen is causing criticism with his view that the right to asylum in the Basic Law could be abolished due to the Geneva Convention on Refugees. Woidke calls for the migration policy of the past ten years to be put to the test.
CDU state leader Jan Redmann speaks of the "double Woidke", who criticizes the SPD in the federal government and changes banks on issues. Redmann wants to succeed Woidke as Minister President. He also sees the election as an opportunity to "switch off" the traffic lights in the federal government. Redmann's driving an electric scooter in July with a blood alcohol level of 1.3 per mille seems to have been dismissed and he has to pay a fine of 8,000 euros.
Potentially difficult government formation
In the latest polls, however, the CDU in Brandenburg is only at 14 to 16 percent - just ahead of the new alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), which for some is a "black box", i.e. a party with unknown content.
According to the latest surveys, the BSW polls between 13 and 14 percent. So far, the SPD has governed Brandenburg with the CDU and the Greens. The Greens, as well as the Left Party and the Free Voters, must fear for their re-entry into the state parliament. However, a direct mandate is enough to be represented in parliament again. The liberal FDP is not shown individually in the latest polls - it is well below 5 percent.
The coalition options after the election are open: It may not be enough to continue the current governing coalition. Woidke has not yet commented on the subject of a "coalition of choice" - for now, he is relying on a strong SPD.
The BSW could come into play when it comes to forming a government. Leading candidate Robert Crumbach does not want to join the government at any price. As a condition for government participation, he is calling for a clear signal that Germany is taking diplomatic action to end the war in Ukraine. He rejects cooperation with the AfD, but does not rule out support for individual AfD proposals.
©Keystone/SDA
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