KOF Consensus Forecast with lower inflation forecasts
Published: Monday, Sep 30th 2024, 10:50
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Economic experts expect Switzerland's economic development to remain practically the same as three months ago. However, they have clearly lowered their inflation forecasts for the current and coming year.
On average, the economists surveyed as part of the KOF Consensus Forecast continue to expect real gross domestic product (GDP, adjusted for sport) to grow by 1.2% in 2024 and 1.6% in 2025. The unadjusted forecast also remains unchanged at +1.5% and +1.4% respectively.
On average, investment in equipment in particular is viewed somewhat more pessimistically, while the forecasts for construction investment and exports have been adjusted slightly upwards.
Meanwhile, assessments of long-term economic development have brightened slightly. Forecasters are expecting a growth rate of 1.7% in five years, after 1.6% in June.
Falling inflation expectations
The expected inflation rates for the current and next year have been revised downwards. The experts now expect inflation rates of +1.2% and +1.0% in 2024 and 2025; the mean values of the September forecasts are therefore 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points below those of the June forecast.
However, the 2025 forecast is clearly above the latest estimates from various institutes. According to its latest forecast from last week, the SNB still expects an inflation rate of 0.6% in the coming year, while the KOF and Seco each estimate 0.7%.
Meanwhile, the long-term inflation expectations of the KOF Consensus are seen at +1.2%. According to the data, the mean value has thus risen slightly, although the median has remained unchanged at 1.1%.
Meanwhile, the outlook for the future situation on the Swiss labor market has deteriorated once again. An unemployment rate of 2.4% is expected for the current year, 2.6% for 2025 and 2.5% in five years' time. The consensus values have therefore risen by up to 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous survey.
16 economists took part in the KOF Consensus Forecast. The survey was conducted from September 3 to 25, 2024.
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