Difficult search for a chancellor in Austria – “Kickl has time”
Published: Monday, Sep 30th 2024, 16:30
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Following the FPÖ's triumph in the parliamentary elections, Austria is facing a very difficult time forming a government. In view of the looming problems, Federal President Alexander Van der Bellen is urging patience. Finding political solutions and compromises could take time. "This is time well spent," said the head of state in a TV address, preparing citizens for what is likely to be a months-long phase.
One of the central questions remains: What will happen to the election winner Herbert Kickl? Nobody wants to work with the leader of the right-wing FPÖ. "He could become President of the National Council, the second most important office in the state. That would be an exit strategy for the FPÖ," says political scientist Kathrin Stainer-Hämmerle.
The right-wing populists are in a special position. With their record result of 28.8%, they won the election. They are hoping for a coalition under their leadership, but do not necessarily have to join the government. "They can wait for the possible failure of the next government," says Stainer-Hämmerle. Because whoever takes over government responsibility will not have it easy in view of the economic slump, the structural problems with pensions and the multiple reform backlog. "Kickl has the least pressure of all and the FPÖ could continue its victim narrative in opposition," says the political scientist.
Head of state probes himself
In the near future, Van der Bellen wants to talk to all parties to find out for himself who can work with whom for the good of the country. In the end, Stainer-Hämmerle is convinced that the conservative ÖVP will be given the task of forming the government by Chancellor Karl Nehammer.
Because without the ÖVP, which has been in power for more than three decades, it won't work this time either. A possible partner is the Social Democratic SPÖ, which has suffered a record loss under its leader Andreas Babler. According to the provisional official final result, the ÖVP and SPÖ would have a wafer-thin majority in parliament with a total of 183 seats and 93 seats between them.
The next few weeks will have to show whether Babler, who has moved the SPÖ far to the left, will be able to stay in office at all in view of the election fiasco. The day after the election, he received at least superficial support from within the party.
Stress test for the next state elections
The upcoming state elections in Vorarlberg and Styria will be a stress test for the ÖVP and SPÖ. In these more rural provinces, the FPÖ can once again hope for brilliant gains in October and November.
According to a voter flow analysis conducted by the Foresight Institute on behalf of ORF, the FPÖ received 33% of the vote in rural areas in the National Council elections. In Vorarlberg and Styria, prime ministers of the ÖVP govern, once with the Greens and once with the SPÖ. Should the ÖVP lose power in both states, this would also be a major problem for party leader Nehammer. "Then the pressure on him will grow," says Stainer-Hämmerle.
Many observers assume that it will take until Christmas to form a government. A coalition between the ÖVP, SPÖ and the liberal Neos party is a conceivable scenario. "A three-party alliance against the FPÖ is not undemocratic; 70 percent of voters did not vote for the right-wing populists," writes the Neue Zürcher Zeitung. At the same time, however, this constellation has the problem that the German traffic light government in Austria is seen as the worst possible role model for a political trio.
Since Kickl has been rejected by all parties, at least so far, his entry into the chancellor's office could still fail this time. But the medium-term prospects seem intact: "Kickl has time," says the political scientist.
©Keystone/SDA
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