Many uncertainties with regard to energy supply in winter
Published: Monday, Nov 6th 2023, 14:07
Updated At: Tuesday, Nov 7th 2023, 00:54
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En contra de los peores temores, Suiza no se quedó sin energía el invierno pasado. Y la situación se ha suavizado aún más desde entonces. Sin embargo, los expertos no dan el visto bueno para este invierno.
Las cosas pintan bien en estos momentos: El suministro de electricidad, gas, gasóleo de calefacción y gasolina en Suiza está garantizado. Por ejemplo, las cuatro centrales nucleares suizas están conectadas a la red y producen electricidad, y los embalses están llenos según la media a largo plazo. Tampoco hay actualmente problemas con el suministro eléctrico en los países vecinos.
Switzerland can therefore enter the cold season much more relaxed than a year ago. "European gas storage facilities are almost completely full and the availability of French nuclear power plants is significantly better than last winter," said the energy company Alpiq in response to an inquiry from the news agency AWP. At the same time, demand for electricity and gas has fallen significantly.
¿Cuánto frío hará?
However, this does not mean that there might not be a shortage in winter. Experience from last year has shown how quickly assessments can change, according to Bern-based BKW, for example. "It is therefore definitely good that Switzerland has reserves for difficult situations with the emergency power plant in Birr, the hydropower reserve and the pool of emergency power generators."
The situation on the electricity market remains fragile, also because it is closely linked to the European gas market, according to Alpiq's experts. Supply shocks on the gas market could change the situation abruptly - for example through strikes or damage to the energy infrastructure.
Last but not least, demand in winter is also heavily influenced by the weather. So the question is: how cold will the winter be in Europe? Switzerland is dependent on electricity imports from abroad during the winter months. In an "icy" winter, "electricity could well become scarce", says Tobias Habegger from BKW.
Gran nerviosismo en el mercado
El curso futuro de la economía también es una incógnita: no es seguro que la demanda en Europa siga deprimida. La demanda de gas en Asia, especialmente en China, también podría aumentar debido a una recuperación económica. El suministro de GNL podría entonces escasear en Europa, afirma Thomas Hegglin, de la Asociación Suiza de la Industria del Gas (VSG).
It also remains to be seen whether Russian gas will still flow to Europe in winter. According to Hegglin, it is currently around twelve percent. "Efforts to replace Russian gas are being driven forward in Europe and the LNG infrastructure is being continuously optimized, but this won't happen overnight." The coming winter will also be the first winter entirely without German nuclear power.
All this uncertainty is also reflected on the markets: "We are seeing a lot of nervousness and therefore high volatility in energy prices," says Noël Graber from Axpo. The escalation of the Middle East conflict, for example, could be reflected in higher prices in the coming weeks, says Habegger from BKW. The conflict is overshadowing the "balanced" picture with currently above-average warm temperatures, high wind production, full gas storage facilities and high power plant availability.
La crisis energética aún no ha terminado
Aunque los precios de mercado de la electricidad y el gas natural ya no están en los niveles récord extremos de 2022, han retrocedido claramente desde esos máximos, pero siguen siendo más altos que antes del primer aumento muy notable desde el otoño de 2021. Y con el inicio de la guerra en Ucrania en febrero de 2022, los precios siguieron disparándose.
"Prices have stabilized at an above-average level compared to the years before 2021," says the Association of Swiss Electricity Companies (VSE) with regard to the electricity market. However, a slight upward trend has recently become apparent again, presumably due to the war in the Middle East. However, the continued above-average prices are also an expression of the fact that "Europe has not yet overcome the energy crisis".
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