Slight slowdown on the labor market in March
Published: Monday, Apr 8th 2024, 10:11
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The number of unemployed people in Switzerland fell slightly in March. However, the decline was less pronounced than usual at this time of year.
At the end of March, 108,593 people were registered as unemployed with the Regional Employment Centers (RAV), as reported by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (Seco) on Monday. This was 3286 fewer than in February. The rate remained at 2.4 percent.
Experts had expected an even stronger decline in advance. The economists surveyed by the news agency AWP had unanimously predicted a rate of just 2.3%.
Adjusted for an increase
The decline was "less pronounced than usual", Boris Zürcher, Head of the Labor Directorate at Seco, also admitted to the media. Unemployment did fall in the construction and hospitality sectors, for example, as is usual in spring. Adjusted for such seasonal effects, however, the number of unemployed rose by around 3100 and the adjusted unemployment rate increased from 2.2 percent to 2.3 percent.
According to Zürcher, there was a slight increase in practically all subgroups, sectors and regions. This increase in March was also "noticeably stronger" than the average of the last six months.
"Not a disaster"
Nevertheless, the Seco man is not overly concerned. He speaks of a "gradual normalization" after the record year of 2023, when the shortage of skilled workers was on everyone's lips. There can therefore be no talk of a catastrophe on the labor market. On the contrary, the figures are still "very, very good" in a long-term comparison
Weaker economy
Meanwhile, seasonally adjusted unemployment has been rising slightly for around a year, Zürcher continued. "This reflects the subdued demand for labor in the wake of weaker economic growth."
The current trend is also in line with its expectations. For the year as a whole, Seco is forecasting an average unemployment rate of 2.3%, after the rate fell to a decade low of 2.0% in 2023.
Cash register is in the black
The historically low unemployment rate also left its mark on the unemployment insurance finances in 2023. This resulted in a revenue surplus of CHF 2.76 billion and equity rose to CHF 6.78 billion.
If this equity exceeds a certain threshold, the contribution rates must be adjusted. However, such an adjustment is not imminent. According to Zürcher, the upper equity limit is currently 11.2 billion. And according to the forecasts, a value of around 8.5 billion will only be reached at the end of 2024.
The upper limit is currently not expected to be reached until 2027 or 2028. However, according to Zürcher, there could be a delay of two to three years due to the federal government's current savings program, which provides for a reduction in federal contributions.
©Keystone/SDA
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