Initiative for a 13th AHV pension still on course for a Yes vote
Published: Wednesday, Feb 21st 2024, 06:20
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Just over two weeks before the referendum, the initiative for a 13th AHV pension has 53% and 59% support according to two surveys. The picture is clearer for the pension initiative: according to the SRG-SSR trend survey, 63% reject it, and 65% according to "20 Minuten"/Tamedia.
The formation of opinion is well advanced overall, as SRG SSR and "20 Minuten"/Tamedia announced on Wednesday on the basis of the second wave of their surveys on the federal vote on March 3.
In the SRG-SSR survey, the "For a better life in old age" initiative would have narrowly passed the majority hurdle in mid-February. The survey conducted by "20 Minuten"/Tamedia in the same period showed a Yes majority of 59%. Within a month, the Yes camp has lost 8 or 12 percentage points. This is normal for initiatives.
Yes in Latin Switzerland
The SRG SSR trend survey revealed regional linguistic differences. In Italian-speaking Switzerland, 79% were still in favor of the initiative. In German- and French-speaking Switzerland, approval fell by seven percentage points.
This resulted in a stalemate in German-speaking Switzerland of 49% against 48% in favor. The Yes majority in French-speaking Switzerland remained at a clear 59% despite the decline.
In rural regions throughout Switzerland, the vote was tied at 48% in favor and 49% against. In the smaller agglomerations, the approval rate was 52%. In the cities, the Yes vote was fairly safe at 58%.
Only 42 percent of younger people wanted to vote yes. Middle-aged people voted in favor at 56 percent and those of retirement age at 60 percent.
The "20 Minuten"/Tamedia survey revealed major differences in the level of education. For example, 71% of people with a compulsory school education said yes, compared to 46% of people with a university or university of applied sciences degree.
Majorities of GLP, centrist, FDP and SVP supporters would vote no - in some cases narrowly - according to SRG SSR. According to "20 Minuten"/Tamedia, the base of all major parties, with the exception of the FDP and GLP, supported the 13th AHV pension.
Approval fell in the SVP camp, where the parent party had decided to vote against. In the left-wing camp, opinions were divided according to both surveys.
Pension initiative only goes down well with FDP
According to SRG SSR, the pension initiative "for secure and sustainable old-age provision" would have failed on February 10 with 63% voting "no". This is an increase of 9 percentage points compared to the survey a month ago. "20 Minuten"/Tamedia came to a "no" share of 65%.
According to both surveys, only FDP supporters, from whose youth party the initiative originated, are still in the Yes camp. However, according to "20 Minuten" Tamedia, support there was also only 57%. According to the SRG-SSR survey, GLP and centrist sympathizers were increasingly against the project. Contrary to the party slogan, SVP voters were more inclined to reject it. The No vote was therefore broadly supported.
According to SRG SSR, there was an above-average turnout of 52 percent for the vote on March 3.
The SRG SSR trend survey was conducted by the research institute gfs.bern between February 7 and 14 among 19,105 voters. The figures have a 95% probability with an uncertainty range of plus/minus 2.8 percentage points.
The "20 Minuten"/Tamedia survey was conducted by the Leewas Institute on February 14 and 15 among 23,734 participants. It has an uncertainty range of plus/minus 1.1 percentage points.
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