Kinship networks are shrinking worldwide – including in Switzerland
Published: Saturday, Jan 13th 2024, 05:30
Volver a Live Feed
The number of relatives a person has is expected to decrease by more than 40 percent in the near future. Globally, a 65-year-old woman today has an average of 45 living relatives. "In 2095, a woman of the same age will only have an average of 25 living relatives," reported the researchers from the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR) in Rostock. The greatest decline is expected in South America and the Caribbean.
In North America and Europe, where families are already comparatively small, the changes will be less pronounced, said Diego Alburez-Gutierrez, head of the Inequalities in Kinship Research Group at the MPIDR. He recently published the study together with Ivan Williams from the University of Buenos Aires and Hal Caswell from the University of Amsterdam.
"In Germany, a 65-year-old could expect to have an average of 15.8 living relatives in 2023," says Alburez-Gutierrez. According to the projection, she will only have 15 relatives in 2050 and - statistically speaking - only 14.1 in 2095. In Switzerland, the figures will fall from 18.7 (2023) to 16.7 (2050) and 14.6 (2095). Overall, a period from 1950 to 2100 was considered in five-year intervals.
1000 family histories analyzed per country
The researchers analyzed historical and projected data from the 2022 edition of the United Nations World Population Prospects for their study. They documented differences in family size worldwide, which they defined as the number of living great-grandparents, grandparents, parents, children, grandchildren and great-grandchildren, aunts and uncles, nieces and nephews, siblings and cousins. For each country, 1000 kinship histories were analyzed.
In 1950, a 65-year-old woman in the South America/Caribbean region had an average of 56 living relatives. In 2095, this figure is expected to fall to 18.3 relatives - a decrease of 67 percent. Due to structural changes in families, grandparents and great-grandparents are likely to be available in greater numbers in the future. While this could theoretically help to relieve the burden of childcare on parents, in reality these (great-)grandparents could also become in need of care.
In the researchers' view, the study underlines the need to invest in social support systems that ensure people's well-being at all stages of life. Alburez-Gutierrez: "These seismic shifts in family structure will bring important societal challenges that should be considered by policy makers in the global North and South."
©Keystone/SDA
Spanish 
English 
German 
French 
Arabic