Orban gives up blockade – Ukraine receives new EU billions

Published: Thursday, Feb 1st 2024, 16:01

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The way has been cleared for billions in new EU aid for Ukraine after weeks of blockade by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban.

At a special EU summit in Brussels on Thursday, the right-wing populist withdrew his veto against a financial aid package worth 50 billion euros (around 46.6 billion Swiss francs). It is intended to help ensure that the Ukrainian state does not go bankrupt despite the huge costs of fending off the Russian war of aggression.

In return for Orban's agreement, the other EU states agreed to discuss the implementation of the aid program for Ukraine once a year at top level. There is also to be the possibility of a review in two years' time. However, according to the compromise text, this will only be used if all 27 EU states see the need for it.

Selenskyj relieved: No less important than military aid

The agreement was greeted with relief and joy in Ukraine. "The EU's continued financial support for Ukraine will strengthen long-term economic and financial stability, which is no less important than military aid and the pressure of sanctions on Russia," explained Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

The aid package should actually have been decided at a regular EU summit last December. However, Orban vetoed it at the time and prevented an agreement from being reached.

The Hungarian had previously repeatedly questioned the usefulness of the plans and in this context also pointed out that, in his view, the EU had wrongly frozen funds earmarked for his country from the EU budget. Orban is particularly convinced that the war in Ukraine should be ended as quickly as possible through negotiations.

Agreement in a small group

The basis for the compromise that has now been reached was laid during talks between Orban and a small group of the most powerful heads of state and government shortly before the official start of the summit. Among those present were German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni as well as EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Council President Charles Michel.

What exactly was discussed in this round initially remained unclear. However, considerable pressure had already been exerted on Orban before the summit. EU officials had prepared an analysis before the summit in which it was pointed out that if the summit failed because of Orban, other heads of state and government could discuss stopping all EU payments to Hungary. They warned that this could in turn lead to a fall in foreign investment and a further increase in the financing costs of the national deficit and a fall in the currency.

In addition, Orban was more or less openly threatened with the withdrawal of Hungary's voting rights in EU decisions. The necessary proceedings due to alleged rule of law deficits have been ongoing for years. However, it has not been actively pursued to date - partly in the hope that Orban will give in on contentious issues.

Orban rejects accusation of attempted blackmail

Orban himself had said before the summit that Hungary was ready to be part of a solution. However, the prerequisite was that a new decision was made every year as to whether or not to continue sending money. However, other member states such as Germany categorically rejected this.

One reason was that they wanted to assure Ukraine of long-term support. It was also about removing Hungary's ability to blackmail. Orban has long been accused in Brussels of trying to use a veto policy to freeze EU funds for his country due to rule of law concerns. Orban rejects this and in turn accuses the EU Commission of constantly imposing new conditions to prevent the disbursement of funds. Around 21 billion euros are currently at stake.

According to summit participants, there were no concessions in this area on Thursday. Orban was only able to ensure that the final declaration once again referred to rules for the procedure for freezing EU funds. These state that the application of the so-called conditionality mechanism must be "objective, fair, impartial and fact-based". It is also pointed out that the mere finding of a violation of the rule of law is not sufficient to trigger the mechanism.

Further Ukraine blockades possible

It is now eagerly awaited whether Orban will fundamentally change course and also abandon his blockade policy in other areas. For example, Hungary has been preventing the disbursement of EU funds for arms aid to Ukraine for months and could also hold up the planned EU accession negotiations with Ukraine in many areas.

However, the fact that frustration with Orban has increased dramatically in recent weeks and that several participants at the summit made it clear that they no longer want to accept his policies indefinitely speaks against this. Orban always wants to be the center of attention at summits, but this should not be the case, said Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk even described Orban as a threat to the security of the EU. Summit participants said that the Hungarian had made it relatively clear on Thursday that he still did not think the EU's course on Ukraine was right - but that he agreed with it for the sake of unity.

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