Los directores financieros suizos, claramente más optimistas que hace seis meses
Published: Wednesday, May 1st 2024, 06:10
Updated At: Thursday, May 2nd 2024, 01:59
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Swiss CFOs are much more optimistic about the near future than they were six months ago. The main concerns are the important trading partners Germany and China.
More than half (56%) of over 120 CFOs of Swiss companies surveyed expect the economy to develop positively over the next twelve months, according to the semi-annual CFO survey published on Wednesday by consulting firm Deloitte. This is 15 percentage points more than last fall.
Around 38% of survey participants also rate expectations for Switzerland as neutral and 6% as negative. According to Deloitte, the outlook is therefore "solidly positive, but not euphoric". CFOs are even more confident about the economy in the USA.
By contrast, expectations for trading partners Germany (66% negative or very negative) and China (47% negative or very negative) are far more pessimistic than for Switzerland and the US. While the assessment for Germany remained more or less stable compared to the fall, expectations for China have at least brightened slightly.
This indicates a trend whereby the outlook for Switzerland and other important trading partners is brightening, while the forecast for Germany remains extremely pessimistic. If the forecasts for Germany are confirmed, the Swiss export industry will have to increase its involvement in other markets, concludes Alessandro Miolo, Head of Audit & Assurance at Deloitte Switzerland.
Declining number of employees expected
The CFOs are also optimistic about their own company, at least half of them. Only 16% are rather worried about the future. 63% expect turnover to rise in the next twelve months and 39% also expect margins to increase.
However, around a quarter of them expect the number of employees in their own company to fall, either due to redundancies or vacancies that are not filled. This percentage has now risen for the second time in a row.
This is partly due to the fact that companies do not expect to find suitable skilled workers within a reasonable period of time. The labor shortage remains a major problem for many companies.
On the other hand, the areas of artificial intelligence and automation continue to gain in importance. According to the study, this is leading to a lower willingness to hire and a shrinking workforce. This is also reflected in the figures from the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (Seco), which recently reported a decrease in job vacancies and is forecasting rising unemployment for the current year.
Geopolitics is the biggest concern
As far as the Chief Financial Officers' Worry Barometer is concerned, geopolitical risks have risen spectacularly from 10th to first place at the top of the table. However, the fall survey was conducted even before the Hamas attack on Israel. The feeling of an increasingly insecure world is also reflected in corporate concerns in view of the Middle East conflict, the war in Ukraine, tensions between Taiwan and China and the uncertain outcome of the US elections.
Concerns about regulations have also moved to the forefront, rising eleven places to fourth place. In this context, the CFOs mentioned regulations in the area of sustainability (ESG) for the first time. The increasing number and variety of regulatory requirements increased the time and costs involved, resulting in a conflict of objectives with regard to corporate requirements.
The survey was conducted between March 5 and April 5, 2024, with 121 CFOs taking part.
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