A Yes to the 13th AHV pension would be a historic first
Published: Sunday, Feb 4th 2024, 10:01
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Around a dozen popular initiatives on the subject of AHV have been launched since the turn of the millennium, and none have yet been successful. There have been around thirty since 1925, the year in which the constitutional article creating the AHV was adopted. But not a single one has been successful.
If the popular initiative for a 13th AHV pension is successful on March 3, it would be a historic first in this respect. In the polls conducted so far, a clear majority of respondents support the initiative. However, it remains to be seen whether the 'yes' vote will be sustained and whether the initiative will also achieve the majority of the cantons required for a 'yes' vote.
To date, the people and the cantons have rejected all popular proposals for an expansion of the AHV, as well as an adjustment of the retirement age and additional sources of funding for the AHV. Some referendums on AHV were withdrawn in response to counter-proposals, particularly in the first decades of the social security system introduced in 1948.
Three pending initiatives
Since the turn of the millennium, the administration and, depending on the case, parliament and the electorate have had to deal with 15 initiatives on the subject of AHV. Eight initiatives were rejected at the ballot box. The committees did not collect enough signatures for three, and one collection of signatures was stopped prematurely.
Three initiatives are still pending - two of which will be voted on on March 3. The third is the center initiative for the abolition of the so-called marriage penalty for married AHV pensioners. Signatures will be collected until the end of March.
The AHV is one of the most important social security schemes, says Lausanne political scientist Georg Lutz on the frequent initiatives. "It's about money, redistribution, emotions and attempts at political control." At the same time, the AHV is a core issue for the left, which it can use to mobilize people beyond its own camp with its desire for expansion.
No successful initiative yet
An AHV initiative has never been successful. A similar request to the initiative for a 13th AHV pension was made a few years ago, but under different circumstances: The "AHVplus: for a strong AHV" initiative called for a ten percent increase in pensions. It was rejected in September 2016 with a 59.4 percent "no" vote. Only five cantons supported it.
The Voto study on that referendum showed that the initiative had hardly gained any votes beyond the left-green camp. The arguments put forward by opponents at the time were roughly the same as those for the 13th AHV pension. On balance, this would lead to a pension increase of around 8.3 percent.
In 2016, many No voters felt that a flat-rate pension increase based on the watering can principle would be of no use to those who depended on it. In 2016, as today, opponents also doubted the financial viability of the proposal. Only among 60 to 69-year-olds was there a majority in favor of the initiative.
Lutz says that opponents of the 13th AHV pension cannot win in a sleeping car with the argument that the initiative is damaging the economy. He notes a general loss of confidence in the economy following the financial crisis and the bailouts of major banks. The Yes to the rip-off initiative was already a sign of this.
AHV has significance
Supporters of the 13th AHV pension cite higher costs due to rising prices, rents and health insurance premiums. They argue that inflation and premium increases have eaten up one month's pension since 2021. According to the Federal Statistical Office (FSO), however, inflation was negative in 2016.
For Lutz, a Yes to the 13th AHV pension would be surprising and a sign that "the AHV is important for many people to secure their old age and that the loss of purchasing power is noticeable for low incomes". The defining momentum of the trade associations is also eroding. This was demonstrated, for example, by the no vote on the partial abolition of stamp duty. The left-wing party had launched a referendum against this.
©Keystone/SDA
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