Analysis Suggests Rightward Shift in Cantonal Elections
Published: Sunday, Oct 1st 2023, 12:26
Updated At: Friday, Oct 13th 2023, 14:12
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The analysis of the cantonal trends for the Swiss National Council elections on October 22nd confirms the predictions of opinion polls. The Greens and Green Liberals are likely to lose seats, while the SVP is expected to regain some of the 12 seats it lost in 2019. The SVP is expected to gain four, five or even half of the 12 seats it lost in 2019, making it the strongest party in Switzerland with 53 seats in the National Council. In contrast, the Greens are likely to lose two to four seats after their surge in the last four years, falling back behind the centre. The Green Liberals (GLP) are also expected to lose ground, with a predicted loss of nine seats, returning to the level of 2015. However, political scientist Nenad Stojanovic believes the two green parties may not fare too badly, as there is often a tendency among some voters to support candidates seen as losers. National polls on the strength of the parties should be taken with caution, as the small size of many cantons disrupts the proportionality between the number of voters and the number of seats. The result of the October 22nd elections will be the product of the particular dynamics in each of the 26 cantons and half-cantons, rather than just the arithmetic distribution of voter shares at the national level. The analysis of the individual cantons therefore allows for a more precise prediction. It ultimately confirms the last polls by the Sotomo research institute, that the parliament will move slightly to the right and cement the historical power balance. This shift to the right is not expected to be at the expense of the SP, which is predicted to gain slightly and reach at least 40 seats. It is not as clear from the analysis of the cantonal trends, as the last polls suggested, that the centre will overtake the FDP and become the third strongest party in the country. In the larger cantons, the record number of candidates and numerous list and sub-list connections will make predictions difficult. Basel-Stadt is expected to lose a seat to Zurich due to demographic developments, which could be good news for the right. It will also be interesting to see if the Bernese Jura can hold its seat, and if several parties not currently represented in parliament, particularly in Ticino, Geneva and Zurich, can shake up the cards.
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