Citizens and SP Can Hope for Seat Gains According to Predictions
Published: Saturday, Oct 14th 2023, 12:50
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The latest polls and forecasts predict a slight shift to the right in the Parliament. It is unlikely that the SVP and FDP factions will have an absolute majority in the next legislative period, as they did after the 2015 elections. The overall picture of the polls for the National Council elections on October 22nd is well known: losses for the Greens, gains for the SVP. The polls also show stability for the other parties, with slight gains for the SP and Centre. There has been debate about the close race between the Centre and FDP to become the third strongest party. However, the pollsters are divided on the extent of the shifts. The latest SRG survey predicts a 2.5 percentage point gain for the SVP, while the latest Tamedia survey predicts a 3.1 percentage point gain. The SRG survey predicts a 3.5 percentage point loss for the Greens, while the Tamedia survey predicts a 2.7 percentage point loss.
The shifts in voter percentages do not necessarily reflect the future power relations in the National Council. This is because each canton forms its own electoral district, with very different proportional thresholds. The SVP is expected to gain between 55 and 57 seats in the National Council, compared to the 53 it currently holds. The SP is expected to remain the second strongest party, with 39 to 42 seats. The FDP is expected to gain slightly, from 29 to 30 or 31 seats. The Centre is expected to gain seats, from 28 to 29 to 32. The Greens are expected to lose four to five seats, while the GLP is expected to retain 11 to 13 seats.
©Keystone/SDA
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