Confidence in the Swiss economy remains moderately optimistic
Published: Wednesday, May 29th 2024, 10:40
Updated At: Wednesday, Jun 26th 2024, 10:10
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Financial analysts remain moderately optimistic about the outlook for the Swiss economy. However, they are particularly concerned about the elections in the USA and France.
Although the UBS CFA indicator, a monthly survey of financial analysts, fell below its previous month's value for the first time in June after seven consecutive increases, the decline was very moderate and thus points to a stable assessment. The indicator published by the major bank fell by 0.7 points to 17.5 points in June, as the bank announced on Wednesday. In February, the index had turned positive again for the first time in two years.
The index reflects the "moderately optimistic" expectations of analysts with regard to economic growth in Switzerland over the next six months, according to the report. The optimistic tone of the June survey results is primarily due to the assessment of the current economic situation, the report continues. The survey participants had revised this upwards significantly.
Meanwhile, the experts expect an improvement from a low level for the eurozone, but take a much more critical view of the current situation. In contrast, their expectations for the USA are more pessimistic, while they are more positive about the current situation there.
This is primarily due to the upcoming elections, the press release continues. "In the run-up to the elections in France (June 30 and July 7) and in the US later this year (November 5), domestic politics ranks as the main concern of financial analysts for the eurozone and the US."
Francs seen more strongly
After the franc recently overcame its weak phase and appreciated again, the survey participants expect it to continue to appreciate against the euro and US dollar. At the same time, the majority of respondents forecast that short-term interest rates in Switzerland, the eurozone and the USA will fall over the next six months. The survey was conducted before the Swiss National Bank (SNB) cut interest rates on June 20.
Meanwhile, respondents were somewhat more confident than recently about long-term inflation expectations for Switzerland. In their opinion, the probability that inflation will remain within the price stability defined by the SNB (0 to 2 percent per year) is 74 percent. "This is the highest probability for this inflation range since the question was first asked in 2013."
The survey took place between June 13 and 19, with 40 analysts taking part.
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