Economiesuisse continues to expect moderate economic growth
Published: Wednesday, Jun 5th 2024, 10:20
Updated At: Wednesday, Jun 5th 2024, 11:41
Back to Live Feed
Economiesuisse continues to expect only moderate growth in the Swiss economy. In the current year, gross domestic product (GDP) is likely to increase by 1.1 percent, as the economic umbrella organization explained to the media in Zurich on Wednesday.
Economiesuisse is thus sticking to its previous forecast. The export economy continues to suffer from subdued international demand. The European economy in particular is weakening, but the Japanese economy is also struggling.
According to Economiesuisse, overall growth in the global economy is muted. Geopolitical uncertainties, the trade conflict between the USA and China and the military conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East are making solid and sustainable growth impossible.
China is growing, but less than in the past. In addition to the trade conflict, the real estate crisis is a particular burden there.
In contrast, the US economy is growing surprisingly robustly despite high interest rates. "The downside, however, is that inflation in the US is not returning to the target level of two percent so quickly," wrote Economiesuisse.
Domestic economy is doing better
The Swiss domestic economy, on the other hand, is growing moderately according to the experts. It is benefiting from the fact that inflation in Switzerland is already back within the Swiss National Bank's (SNB) target range of zero to two percent. The fact that interest rates are moderate and the unemployment rate remains low is also helping.
Private and public consumption would support the domestic economy. Despite the fact that the main construction industry is barely growing, the order situation in the finishing trade is significantly better.
Slight acceleration in 2025
According to Economiesuisse, the Swiss economy should pick up slightly next year. Economiesuisse is forecasting GDP growth of 1.4% for 2025.
Overall, the Swiss economy remains below its potential, Economiesuisse chief economist Rudolf Minsch told the media in Zurich. "We had employment growth which, together with the increase in productivity, should have led to greater economic growth."
The pharmaceutical and medical goods industries will continue to be able to escape the economic adversities for the most part. Banks and insurance companies will see stable growth this year and next, explained Economiesuisse.
Sectors that are more severely affected by the weak international demand are mostly expecting a slight recovery in demand in the coming months and are quite confident about the coming year. Demand for watches in China should increase again after a difficult first quarter of 2024.
The order situation is also easing in the industry. The umbrella organization is expecting more orders again.
Private consumption stable
Private consumption is stable: "After the real wage declines of the last two years, nominal wages will rise faster than inflation this year," explained Economiesuisse. The umbrella organization expects private consumption to grow by 1.5 percent this year and 1.6 percent in 2025.
The overall employment outlook remains good. "There are more companies (25 percent) that want to increase employment than reduce it (15 percent)," it said. The labor shortage continues. Overall, Economiesuisse expects a low unemployment rate of 2.3 percent this year and 2.5 percent next year.
However, inflation has not yet been conquered. Internationally, inflation is mainly determined by the rise in service prices, while goods prices are largely stable. In Switzerland, on the other hand, inflation is likely to fall from 1.7 percent this year to 1.4 percent next year.
Minsch did not want to include the outcome of the US elections in the forecasts: "We have not dared to make a prediction as to what the outcome of the US elections will mean for geopolitical tensions. We assume that things will continue more or less as before."
©Keystone/SDA
English 
German 
French 
Spanish 
Arabic