European elections likely to be a reckoning for German “traffic lights”
Published: Monday, Jun 3rd 2024, 05:10
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When the German MEPs for the European Parliament are elected next Sunday, Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) will probably be glad that the Bundestag is not also up for election. Two and a half years after being sworn in at the Reichstag in Berlin, the "traffic light" coalition of Scholz's Social Democrats, Liberals (FDP) and Greens is in a polling slump. The European elections, the only test of strength at national level outside of the federal elections, are likely to be a reckoning for the "traffic light" coalition in Germany.
Polls currently put the SPD at between 14 and 16%. This puts it in a similarly poor position as in the 2019 European elections (15.8%), but far below the 25.7% with which Scholz won the 2021 federal elections and paved the way for the SPD to return to the chancellorship after 16 years of CDU Chancellor Angela Merkel.
With 13-15%, the Greens are close to their last result in the Bundestag (14.8%), but far below the impressive 20.5% in the 2019 European elections. The FDP would miss out on a place in the Bundestag with 4%, but there is no threshold clause in the European elections in Germany. Together, the "traffic light" would therefore only achieve around 33%.
The unpopular "traffic light"
The most populous EU country accounts for 96 of the 720 seats in the EU Parliament. 60.9 million Germans are eligible to vote and, according to the Federal Returning Officer, around 4.1 million citizens of other EU countries are also allowed to vote in Germany. The voting age has been lowered to 16. At the same time as the European elections, local elections are held in eight federal states and a local by-election in Thuringia. They are also regarded as an indicator of the political balance of power in Europe's largest economy.
There are various reasons why the "traffic light" government is so unpopular a good 15 months before the next general election: On the one hand, there is immigration, which many believe the government is unable to get under control, on the other, energy policy with a controversial law to replace old heating systems and the constant squabbling between the unequal coalition partners. Temporarily high inflation as a result of the war in Ukraine and weak economic development also dampened the mood. Last summer, Germany was once again referred to as the "sick man of Europe", as it was at the turn of the millennium.
If federal elections were held now, opposition leader and CDU leader Friedrich Merz would have a good chance of replacing Scholz in the chancellorship. Accordingly, the conservatives are likely to send the most German MPs to Strasbourg and Brussels. In the polls, Merz's CDU, together with its Christian Democratic Bavarian sister party, the CSU, is polling around 30 percent and is therefore likely to strengthen the ranks of the EPP group, which is led by CSU politician Manfred Weber.
Right-wing and left-wing populists in view
The performance of the AfD, which is classified by the Office for the Protection of the Constitution as a suspected right-wing extremist party, is eagerly awaited. At the turn of the year, it was polling at up to 24% across Germany; it is currently polling at around 17%, still significantly better than in the previous general election (10.3%).
Shortly before the election, chaos reigns among the right-wing populists: top candidate Maximilian Krah was banned from appearing by the party after controversial comments about the National Socialist SS, and one of his employees was arrested weeks ago on suspicion of spying for China. The number two on the list, Petr Bystron, is being investigated by the Munich Public Prosecutor General's Office on suspicion of bribery and money laundering; he denies the allegations. The right-wing ID group in the EU Parliament has excluded the AfD following Krah's SS statements.
On the left, meanwhile, a new player has entered the political stage: the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) around the eponymous member of the Bundestag, a spin-off from the Left Party. On the issue of immigration and social policy, it takes a much more conservative line than the Left Party, while its economic policy positions are classically socialist. In opinion polls, the Wagenknecht party has already overtaken the Left Party with around seven percent.
At EU level, the BSW is calling for an "independent Europe" and is against further arms deliveries to Ukraine. In this, it is not far from the AfD, which also wants to abolish the euro and transform the EU into a "union of European nations" or, if this does not succeed, fight for Germany to leave the EU.
Christian Democrats at odds with top candidate
There is no doubt about the pro-European stance of the "traffic light" parties and the CDU/CSU. However, many Christian Democrats are at odds with their own lead candidate, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. The party colleague's stance on the ban on new cars with combustion engines or the "Green Deal" is already considered too green by many. Even if the Group of the European People's Party (EPP) once again becomes the strongest force, it is far from certain that the Germans will be able to secure a majority for a second term in the EU Parliament.
It remains to be seen what political impact a collapse of the "traffic light" at EU level will have in Germany. After the 2019 election, the then SPD leader Andrea Nahles had to resign. However, an early general election is considered extremely unlikely and Scholz is likely to remain in office until at least the fall of 2025.
©Keystone/SDA
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