Forecast: AfD ahead in Thuringia election – CDU in Saxony
Published: Sunday, Sep 1st 2024, 18:30
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According to forecasts, the far-right AfD has become the strongest party in a German state for the first time. According to calculations by ARD and ZDF, it is well ahead of the second-placed Christian Democrats in the state elections in Thuringia. The latter are just ahead in neighboring Saxony.
The newly founded left-wing populist alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) reached double figures from a standing start. Disaster is looming for the parties in Chancellor Olaf Scholz's "traffic light" coalition (SPD, FDP, Greens).
According to forecasts, the AfD achieved between 30.5% and 33.5% in Thuringia (2019: 23.4%), its best result ever in a state election. The Christian Democrats achieved 24.5% (2019: 21.8%), while the ruling Left Party plummeted to between 11.5% and 12.5% (2019: 31.0%). The newly founded Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), a split-off from the Left, recorded 14.5 to 16% from a standing start.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democrats achieved a meagre 6.5 to 7.0 percent (2019: 8.2 percent), while the Greens were kicked out of the state parliament with 4 percent (2019: 5.2 percent). The FDP clearly failed to reach the five percent hurdle with 1.0 to 1.3 percent (2019: 5.0 percent).
According to forecasts, the AfD received 30 to 31.5% in Saxony (2019: 27.5%), putting it behind Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer's Christian Democrats with 31.5 to 32% (2019: 32.1%). The BSW, which was competing for the first time, also came third here with 11.5 to 12.0 percent. The Left Party slumped to 4.0 to 4.5 percent (2019: 10.4 percent). The SPD, which is traditionally weak in Saxony, landed at 8.5 percent (2019: 7.7 percent), while the Greens came in at 5 to 5.5 percent (2019: 8.6 percent). With only around 1% (2019: 4.5%), the FDP once again failed to make it into the state parliament.
According to ARD, the AfD would have 30 seats in Thuringia, the CDU 24, the BSW 15, the Left 12 and the SPD 7. As no other party wants to work with the AfD, forming a government in Erfurt could prove difficult.
In Saxony, the CDU would have 43 seats, the AfD 41, the BSW 16, the SPD 12 and the Greens 8. If these forecasts are confirmed, CDU Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer could continue his coalition with the SPD and Greens, which has been in place since 2019. Just under five million eligible voters are called to cast their ballots in the two federal states combined. In total, just over seven percent of the German population live in the two states, but they were particularly in the spotlight due to the expected strong performance of the AfD.
©Keystone/SDA
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