Forecast: AfD number one in Thuringia – CDU only just ahead in Saxony
Published: Sunday, Sep 1st 2024, 19:00
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Eleven years after it was founded, the AfD, which is far-right in some areas, has become the strongest party in a German state election for the first time, according to forecasts. According to calculations by ARD and ZDF, it finished well ahead of the second-placed Christian Democrats in Thuringia. The latter are only just ahead in neighboring Saxony.
The newly founded left-wing populist alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) reached double figures from a standing start. Disaster is looming for the parties in Chancellor Olaf Scholz's "traffic light" coalition (SPD, FDP, Greens).
One third AfD in Thuringia
According to forecasts, the AfD achieved between 30.5% and 33.5% in Thuringia (2019: 23.4%), its best result ever in a state election. The Christian Democrats achieved 24.5% (2019: 21.8%), while the ruling Left Party plummeted to between 11.5% and 12.5% (2019: 31.0%). The newly founded Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), a split-off from the Left, recorded 14.5 to 16% from a standing start.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democrats achieved a meagre 6.5 to 7.0 percent (2019: 8.2 percent), while the Greens were kicked out of the state parliament with 4 percent (2019: 5.2 percent). The FDP clearly failed to reach the five percent hurdle with 1.0 to 1.3 percent (2019: 5.0 percent). Thuringia's AfD leader and top candidate Björn Höcke described his party's success as a "historic victory".
CDU could continue to govern in Saxony
According to forecasts, the AfD received 30 to 31.5% in Saxony (2019: 27.5%), putting it behind Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer's Christian Democrats with 31.5 to 32% (2019: 32.1%). The BSW, which was competing for the first time, also came third here with 11.5 to 12.0 percent. The Left Party slumped to 4.0 to 4.5 percent (2019: 10.4 percent). The SPD, which is traditionally weak in Saxony, landed at 8.5 percent (2019: 7.7 percent), while the Greens came in at 5 to 5.5 percent (2019: 8.6 percent). With only around 1% (2019: 4.5%), the FDP once again failed to make it into the state parliament.
According to ARD, the AfD would have 30 seats in Thuringia, the CDU 24, the BSW 15, the Left 12 and the SPD 7. As no other party wants to work with the AfD, forming a government in Erfurt could prove difficult. The AfD would therefore have a blocking minority of more than a third of the 88 seats. For example, it would no longer be possible to amend the constitution against them.
In Saxony, the CDU would have 43 seats, the AfD 41, the BSW 16, the SPD 12 and the Greens 8. If these forecasts are confirmed, CDU Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer could continue his coalition with the SPD and Greens, which has been in place since 2019.
Targeted by the Office for the Protection of the Constitution
The AfD was founded in 2013 by economic liberals who were critical of the euro and campaigned for Germany to leave the monetary union. Over the years, it has moved further and further to the right and, since the refugee crisis in 2015, has scored particularly well on the issue of migration. The state associations in Saxony and Thuringia are classified as confirmed right-wing extremist by the domestic secret service (Verfassungsschutz), while the federal party is under observation as a suspected case.
Höcke wants to hold talks with the other parties about government participation. It is a good parliamentary tradition that the strongest party invites parties to talks after an election, he said after the first forecast for the state election in Thuringia.
Thuringia's CDU leader Mario Voigt, on the other hand, sees the task of forming a government as lying with the Christian Democrats. "As the CDU, we also see this as an opportunity for political change under the leadership of the CDU," said the 47-year-old in Erfurt.
Left-wing head of state voted out
In Thuringia, left-wing politician Bodo Ramelow is leading a red-red-green minority government with the SPD and Greens as coalition partners. He has been dependent on the support of the CDU for the past five years. "I cannot recommend a minority government to my federal state," he said before the election.
The new state parliaments must convene no later than 30 days after the election. However, the election of the head of government would only take place after the coalition negotiations have been concluded.
Almost five million eligible voters are called to cast their ballots in the two federal states. In total, just over seven percent of the German population live in the two states, but they were particularly in the spotlight due to the expected strong performance of the AfD.
©Keystone/SDA
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