German Federal President decides on dissolution of parliament
Published: Thursday, Dec 26th 2024, 10:10
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Shortly before the end of the year, German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier will announce his decision to dissolve the Bundestag on Friday (11.00 a.m.). It is expected that the head of state will clear the way for new elections. These are scheduled to take place on February 23.
The planned new election is a consequence of the break-up of the "traffic light" coalition of Social Democrats, Liberals and Greens on November 6. On that day, Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) dismissed Finance Minister and FDP leader Christian Lindner, which meant that the FDP left the "traffic light" coalition. Since then, Scholz has only governed with the Greens and no longer has a majority in parliament.
In Germany, the Bundestag cannot dissolve itself. The prerequisite is a lost vote of confidence, which then enables the Federal President to call new elections. In the vote on December 16, only the SPD MPs voted for Scholz, the Greens abstained and most of the other MPs voted against the Chancellor.
According to all the polls, a change of government is to be expected in Germany. Opposition leader Friedrich Merz's Christian Democrats are far ahead. Merz's CDU, together with its sister party CSU, which is only running in Bavaria, is polling at around 33%. The CDU and CSU form a single parliamentary group in the Bundestag and have jointly nominated Merz as their candidate for chancellor.
However, with a third of the votes, Merz would still be far from a majority in the new Bundestag. The FDP, a natural ally of the CDU/CSU for decades due to its ideological closeness, is struggling to overcome the five percent clause to enter parliament according to polls and, even in the best-case scenario, is unlikely to be able to contribute enough votes to elect Merz as chancellor.
The latter would therefore have to rely on cooperation with either the SPD or the Greens. The CDU had governed together with the Social Democrats for 12 of the 16 years under Chancellor Angela Merkel (2005-2021). There are opposing positions on economic and social policy, among other things.
The Bavarian CSU with party leader and Minister President Markus Söder is vehemently opposed to a coalition with the Greens - the first black-green alliance at federal level. There are differences between the black and green parties, particularly in terms of migration and energy policy.
The Christian Democrats want to be able to turn back migrants with no prospects of staying at the borders and are considering a return to nuclear power. However, if the CDU/CSU rules out joining forces with the Greens from the outset, this would weaken their negotiating position vis-à-vis the SPD.
The Chancellor's party is currently polling at 16 to 17 percent, with the Greens at 13 to 14 percent. It is not ruled out that the SPD could still catch up, but pollsters believe that Scholz's deficit to Merz is too great to make up completely.
The issue of migration is likely to play a major role in the election campaign again - even more so after the attack on the Magdeburg Christmas market last Friday, which left five people dead and more than 200 injured. This could benefit the right-wing populist AfD, which is already in second place in the polls with around 19%. None of the other parties want to cooperate with them.
New on the ballot is the left-wing nationalist alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), which also advocates a tougher immigration policy and ranks at around six percent in the polls. The BSW is a split-off from the Left Party, which is now well below five percent.
The 60 million or so eligible voters in Germany have only limited influence on who governs them in the future. This is because they only decide the strength of the parties in parliament, but not who forms a coalition with whom. The Federal Chancellor is elected by the Bundestag after coalition negotiations have been concluded.
The instrument of the vote of confidence to bring about new elections is controversial in Germany. Chancellors Helmut Kohl (CDU) in 1983 and Gerhard Schröder (SPD) in 2005 asked - and lost - them, even though their respective coalitions still had a majority in the Bundestag. There was therefore talk of "fictitious questions of confidence". However, since the FDP left the "traffic light" coalition, Scholz no longer has a parliamentary majority.
©Keystone/SDA
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