How forecasts are created with the new weather model
Published: Tuesday, Jun 25th 2024, 13:00
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What will the weather be like tomorrow? Meteorologists from the Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology (MeteoSwiss) are using a new weather model to answer this question. This should make the weather forecasts more accurate. The forecasts from the new model have been visible to the general public since Tuesday. But how exactly does this model produce weather forecasts? The most important questions and answers:
WHAT EXACTLY DOES THE WEATHER MODEL DO?
Based on current data on temperature, air pressure, wind and cloud cover, the weather model calculates how the weather will develop in the coming hours and days. To do this, it uses mathematical equations based on physical laws.
For these calculations, the new "Icon" model places a triangular grid over the surface of Switzerland and neighboring countries. It divides the atmosphere above it into several layers. Current data from radar and ground measuring stations is then fed in for each of these segments.
HOW MUCH MORE ACCURATE WILL THE FORECASTS BE WITH THE NEW MODEL?
Even with the new model, the weather forecasts will not always be 100% accurate. According to the meteorologists at MeteoSwiss, thunderstorms and fog are particularly difficult to predict.
However, weather forecasts are constantly improving - and the new weather model makes the forecasts about as much better in one fell swoop as they would normally be in four years, according to MeteoSwiss.
WHAT MAKES THE NEW MODEL DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS MODEL?
Its resolution is higher. This means that the grid it lays over the earth is more closely meshed. This allows more accurate local forecasts to be produced. This is particularly important for the Alps, where local weather events such as thunderstorms and mountain and valley wind systems occur frequently.
In addition, according to the meteorologists at MeteoSwiss, the so-called formulation of the model, i.e. the equations it uses to calculate the development of the weather, is better.
WHY DO WE NEED METEOROLOGISTS IN ADDITION TO THE MODEL?
The model makes not just one forecast, but several. This makes it possible to estimate how likely it is that the weather could be slightly different after all. Meteorologists do this work. The probabilities given in weather forecasts are also derived from these various forecasts. For example, it is sometimes said that thunderstorms are very likely.
There are also other weather models that are used to produce forecasts. Meteorologists have the necessary expertise to assess how the weather is most likely to develop.
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