KOF study: Trump tariffs would cost every Swiss 200 francs
Published: Wednesday, Oct 30th 2024, 11:20
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The trade tariffs imposed by a US government led by Donald Trump would also have a direct impact on Switzerland. According to an analysis by the KOF Swiss Economic Institute, the costs for every Swiss citizen would amount to at least CHF 200 per year.
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump wants to impose extensive tariffs on imports into the USA, as KOF economists Hans Gersbach, Paul Maunoir and Kieran Walsh write in an analysis published in the KOF Newsletter. The focus is on goods from China, on which the USA wants to impose a tariff of 60 percent, while the tariff on goods from all other countries is to be 20 percent.
Due to the great importance of the USA for Swiss exports, the local economy would be more affected than other European countries, according to the KOF economists. The pharmaceutical industry in particular would be directly affected by the import tariffs. However, manufacturers of machinery, appliances, precision instruments, watches and foodstuffs would also suffer significantly from the tariffs.
According to the economists' calculations, Switzerland's real GDP level would fall by more than 0.2%. Whether China takes countermeasures or not would only have a minimal impact on Switzerland's losses, as the Swiss economy would not be directly affected.
The tariffs envisaged by a Trump administration would also have severe consequences for the USA itself. According to the KOF experts, the level of real GDP in the USA would fall by more than 2.5% in the short term. In contrast, the losses in China would be smaller: GDP would shrink by 0.5% with countermeasures and by almost 0.2% without them.
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