UBS economists raise GDP forecast for 2024 slightly
Published: Tuesday, Sep 3rd 2024, 16:50
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Following the latest economic figures published on Tuesday, economists at the major bank UBS have raised their forecast for Swiss GDP growth in the current year very slightly from 1.3% to 1.4%. The estimate for growth adjusted for sporting events has been raised to +1.0% (previously +0.9%).
While the Swiss economy has been characterized by a dichotomy in recent quarters - solid consumption, weak industry - the second sector has recently also boosted growth, UBS economists noted in a new report published on Tuesday. However, it was above all the comeback of pharmaceuticals that helped the manufacturing industry to achieve growth in exports.
The experts at the big bank continue to expect Swiss GDP growth of 1.5% for 2025. The forecast for sport-adjusted growth has been raised to 1.7%.
The UBS experts are looking in particular to Europe, where interest rate cuts by the ECB should help the economy to gain momentum next year. At the moment, however, there is little to suggest a recovery in the currency area.
The UBS experts' forecasts for inflation also remain at 1.2% for the current year and 1.0% for the coming year. In Switzerland, second-round effects - such as wage demands from employees - are currently visible, but moderate. Although these effects could prove to be persistent in the coming quarters, they should ultimately subside.
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