Thu, Nov 10th 2022
Although military analysts say that the threat of large-scale nuclear war remains low amidst an escalating war in Ukraine, Switzerland has always been a country to “hope for the best and prepare for the worst.”
Russia reportedly has 2,000 tactical nuclear weapons in its artillery.
As Ukrainian troops move into Russian-occupied territories, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s threats of using his nuclear arsenal seem to be getting louder and louder. In a televised address last month, Russian President Vladmir Putin underscored his threats of nuclear war, saying “This is not a bluff. And those who try to blackmail us with nuclear weapons should know that the prevailing winds can also blow in their direction.”
While it is most likely that Putin would use smaller tactical nuclear weapons, the effects could still “be devastating for Ukraine, Europe and beyond,” according to Stephen Herzog, a nuclear expert at the Centre for Security Studies (CSS) at ETH Zurich. “It is necessary to plan for the scenarios and be ready,” he told SWI Swissinfo. (Read more: Bunker down: Why Switzerland is ready for the big one).
The Sonnenberg tunnel outside of Lucerne can house up to 20,000 in the event of nuclear war.
What could happen?
Should Russia use its tactical nuclear weapons, it would not likely immediately endanger Switzerland. The radiation released would likely be less than the Chernobyl explosion. In this scenario, Swiss residents would not have use their nuclear fallout shelters or even consume iodine tablets, according to Andreas Bucher from the Federal Office for Civil Protection (FOCP). The government would likely have to put a stop to hunting and consuming foods grown in certain areas.
The Swiss government is more concerned that Russia may try to bomb a Ukrainian nuclear power plant, which could have grave consequences for Switzerland. Should that occur, many scenarios are possible depending on weather patterns, the size of the explosion and the altitude of where it happens. In some cases, Switzerland would be protected, in other scenarios “the Swiss population and agriculture could be affected,” Herzog says.
Should NATO member states like Germany, France, or Italy be affected, the likelihood of nuclear war would skyrocket and the risks for Switzerland would increase considerably.
Most Swiss apartment buildings have nuclear fallout shelters underground, like this one picture. Swiss bunkers have concrete walls, metal doors and proper ventilation for a nuclear event.
Preparations decades in the making
While Switzerland has been preparing for the possibility of nuclear war since the 1950s, the country’s efforts ramped up in 2011 following Japan’s Fukushima nuclear disaster. According to a 2019 report from the federal NBC commission, Switzerland is relatively well prepared for a nuclear event in Ukraine. (NBC stands for nuclear, biological and chemical threats.)
“Although many European countries are developing or have civil or military nuclear response plans, they simply do not have Switzerland’s shelter infrastructure,” Herzog says.
Switzerland boasts more than 360,000 nuclear fallout shelters spread across the country. All 9 million residents should have a bunker within a 30-minute walk or less, according to a federal mandate. If one’s house or apartment building does not have a bunker underground, there is likely one nearby in a school or public building. Moreover, Switzerland has the infrastructure to provide medical assistance to people who are affected by radiological exposure. At the end of September, the government staffed up a federal strategic management team to ensure that a rapid response will go smoothly in the event of a nuclear event.
Still, not all cantons have complied with federal recommendations. Residents of Geneva, Basel and Neuchâtel are the worst off, according to an NBC report.
(Credit: SWI).
Moreover, many bunkers have not been maintained or are poorly stocked. According to the Federal Office for Economic Supply, residents should be expected to stay in their bunkers for up to five days in the event of nuclear war. Every bunker should include:
-Nine liters of water per person;
-A week’s worth of food for every person;
-Medicine of all sorts;
-Potassium iodide tablets;
-A flashlight and extra batteries;
-A radio;
-Blankets or sleeping bags.
Even if Switzerland is the most well-prepared country in the world for a nuclear event, no nation can completely protect her residents should nuclear war ensue.
“Even if some countries like Switzerland have bomb shelters or national emergency procedures, any state would be overwhelmed by the devastating consequences of nuclear weapons,” according to the International Peace Research Institute’s mass destruction weapons expert Wilfred Wan. He told SWI that prevention will always be more important than reaction.
President Cassis shakes hands with Ukrainian President Zelensky in October. Switzerland’s continued support of Ukraine signals a step away from neutrality, according to Russian officials (Photo: Ignazio Cassis’ Twitter account).
Is a peace treaty still on the table?
Officials from the United States and Russia will meet “in the near future” to discuss the New START nuclear arms reduction treaty – a discussion that has been paused since Russia invaded Ukraine in February. The New START treaty, which took effect in 2011, limits the number of nuclear warheads that Russia and the U.S. can deploy, as well as the deployment of land- and submarine-based missiles to deliver them. The group meets twice a year to ensure that both nations are complying with the treaty. They last met in October 2021. (Read more: Amid war, Switzerland is pushed to define neutrality).
Although previous discussion between the two nations have been held in Switzerland, Moscow no longer considers Switzerland neutral after it imposed EU-recommended sanctions on the nation. According to a report this week in the Russian newspaper Kommersant, Russia will push for talks to be held in the Middle East instead.
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