KOF Barometer shows ray of hope for Swiss economy
- 30 Jan 2024 8:30 am CET
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The environment for the Swiss economy is somewhat friendlier again. The KOF Economic Barometer also improved in January following the rise in the two previous months. There are therefore increasing signs that the Swiss economy will recover soon.
The barometer of the ETH economic research institute KOF rose by 3.5 points to 101.5 points compared to the revised December value. It thus climbed above its medium-term average value (of 100 points) for the first time since March last year, as the KOF writes in a press release on Tuesday.
The barometer also rose more strongly than expected. Experts surveyed by the news agency AWP had only forecast values between 97.5 and 99.0 points for January.
Better prospects for the hospitality industry
According to data at the start of the year, the outlook has improved for the hospitality industry and the other services sector in particular. The indicator bundles for the manufacturing industry, the construction industry and foreign demand also developed slightly positively.
According to the KOF, the outlook for consumer demand is virtually unchanged. The outlook has only deteriorated for financial and insurance services.
In the manufacturing sector (manufacturing and construction), however, the slight improvement according to KOF conceals mixed trends. The indicators for intermediate product stocks, the order situation and production activity, for example, are trending upwards. In contrast, the indicators for the general business situation and capacity utilization are primarily slowing down.
Developments within the manufacturing sector are also mixed. For example, the outlook for the paper and printing industry and for food and beverage producers is more favorable than before, while the outlook for the metal sector and the chemical and pharmaceutical industry in particular has deteriorated.
Important leading indicator
The KOF Economic Barometer is a leading indicator for the development of the Swiss economy, which is made up of a large number of individual indicators. These are combined into an overall indicator using statistically determined weightings.