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SEM also expects around 30,000 new asylum applications in 2024

The State Secretariat for Migration (SEM) expects around 30,000 new asylum applications in 2024. This figure depends heavily on migration trends in Turkey to Greece and Bulgaria as well as onward migration to Western Europe.

The SEM informed the Special Asylum Unit about this forecast on Thursday. There may be downward or upward deviations of 3,000 applications.

According to the SEM, in addition to developments in Turkey, the number of applications depends on migration from countries whose citizens are allowed to travel to the Schengen area without a visa. Border controls in neighboring countries are another influencing factor.

Experience shows that the number of monthly asylum applications is also likely to rise in spring in 2024 and reach its highest level in summer or early fall before falling again at the end of the year. According to the SEM, Afghanistan and Turkey remain the most important countries of origin.

In the case of protection status S for refugees from Ukraine, the SEM expects around 25,000 cases with a deviation of 5,000 upwards or downwards. This estimate is based on the assumption that the intensity of the war will not change significantly. In recent months, the number of people with S status who have left the country has been in balance with the number of new applications.

The asylum situation remains a challenge for the federal government, cantons and municipalities, the SEM added. However, it has always been possible to provide all those seeking protection with a bed and a roof over their heads.

The asylum task force will continue to meet every two months. It will also have an asylum committee that meets regularly. In this committee, representatives from the federal government, cantons and municipalities will supplement the existing committees at a political and operational level.


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